EURO, EUR/USD, US DOLLAR, INFLATION, TREASURY YIELDS

ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP

Risk assets continued to slide lower during the Asia-Pacific trade as an aggressive rise in global bond yields notably weighed on market sentiment. Australia’s ASX 200 plunged 2.35% as yields on local 10-year government bonds surged to the highest levels since April 2019, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 plummeted 3.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped over 3% and China’s CSI 300 fell 1.87%.

In FX markets, the haven-associated USD, JPY, and CHF largely outperformed, while the cyclically-sensitive AUD, NZD, and NOK slid lower. Gold and silver prices lost ground as yields on US 10-year Treasuries held above 1.47%. Looking ahead, US PCE figures for January and consumer sentiment for February headline the economic docket alongside trade balance data out of Mexico.

SURGING REAL YIELDS BUOYING US DOLLAR

Surging bond yields have buoyed the heavily under-fire US Dollar in recent days, and may open the door for the Greenback to claw back lost ground against the Euro in the near term. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries surged to the highest level since early February of 2020, climbing over 14 basis points in 24 hours as investors continue to bet on the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy levers sooner-than-expected.

However, this seems relatively unlikely given the dovish rhetoric of several members of the Federal Reserve over the last few weeks. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic – one of the first to suggest tapering measures at the end of 2021 – is not expecting to Federal Reserve to react prematurely to climbing yields, stating that they “have definitely moved at the longer end, but right now I am not worried about that”.

This reinforces the comments from Jerome Powell at the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, with Powell reiterating that “the economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and therefore the central bank will maintain its loose approach to monetary policy until “substantial further progress has been made” towards achieving its two mandated goals.

Nevertheless, breakeven inflation rates have stormed to multiyear highs, with the 10-year currently sitting at 2.1% and the 5-year at 2.35%. Real yields have also soared to 9-month highs, while expectations of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike have been pulled forward from early-2024 to early-2023.

These dynamics could open the door for a short-term US Dollar recovery, with attention now intently focused on upcoming PCE figures for the month of January. A larger-than-expected increase in core PCE prices probably intensifying tapering bets and pushing the Greenback higher against its major counterparts.

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KLCI rises 0.77% as select blue chips

KLCI rises 0.77% as select blue chips led by Tenaga lift The main index at Bursa Malaysia rose 0.77% in early trade Wednesday as select index-linked stocks including Tenaga Nasional Bhd advanced, against the backdrop of mixed regional markets.

At 9.05am, the FBM KLCI rose 12.14 points to 1,577.19.

The early gainers included Nestle (M) Bhd, Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Keluarga Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, Frontken Corp Bhd, Aeon Credit Service (M) Bhd, Latitude Tree Holdings Bhd, Tasco Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

 

Bloomberg said U.S. equity futures fluctuated and Asian stocks looked set to slip as investors mulled comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on inflation and growth that spurred swings in stocks and bonds Tuesday.

 

JF Apex Research said US markets ended mixed with the Dow reversing intraday steep losses after the Federal Reserve chairman eased concerns about inflation and rising rates.

 

It said that earlier, European stocks declined following losses in technology counters and rising bond yields.

 

“On the local market, the FBM KLCI lost 5.41 points or 0.34% to 1565.05 points.

“Following the mixed performances in the US and Europe, the FBM KLCI could remain pressured and test the immediate support of 1560 points.

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Today Dax Analysis by Money Life Research

ℹ️ #DAX #ANALYSIS

The DAX is having a strong drop at the opening but it has also just bounced quite quickly in the important support of the 13820 area. It is clear that the loss of this support would lead to continuity in the falls.  While at the top until the maximum on Friday is not exceeded there would not be a new attack on maximums.  As for data, today there is the German IFO and a speech by the president of the ECB.

Indices Trading Signals

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD May Climb Despite Rising Treasury Yields

Wall Street saw red across the board on Thursday as the economic recovery picture took a hit following a worse-than-expected US initial jobless claims figure crossed the wires at 861k for the week ending February 13. Analysts were expecting 765k. Continuing claims also missed expectations at 4494k. The small-cap Russell 2000 index dropped 1.67%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones at -0.72%, -0.44%, and -0.38%, respectively.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed back near its recent multi-month high from earlier this week, with the current level just below 1.300%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar weakened with the DXY index falling nearly half a percentage point. The softer USD didn’t help gold and silver prices, however. XAU/USD was barely changed as it hovered near multi-month support. Silver prices fell against the Greenback, with XAG/USD dropping 1.29%

Elsewhere, lawmakers on Capitol Hill continued to move forward with finalizing President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus relief package, which is expected to advance through Congress by the end of this month. Talks over a separate infrastructure bill are also now on the radar after President Biden met with labor union leaders earlier this week.

The need for a stimulus bill has also gained steam following the failure of Texas’s power grid after a massive storm system caused chaos across the United States earlier this week. Nearly half a million customers in the Lone Star State are reported without power still. There was testimony on Capitol Hill over the recent GameStop market blunder.

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China Fuels Spike in Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil’s price spike lives on.

China’s economic recovery, dropping stockpiles, OPEC production cuts, and cold weather across the north has driven the price of crude oil to its highest mark in more than two years.

And there are no signs this climb will end any time soon with more vaccines rolling out and the global economy beginning to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

🛢️ Crude oil’s price continues its climb thanks to China’s recovery, cold temperatures in the north, and OPEC production cuts.

This push upwards seems to have no end in sight, so what are you waiting for to trade oil now?

Get the best profitable crude oil trading signals from the experts at www.moneyliferesearch.com register now.

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4 Effective Trading Indicators Every Trader Should Know

 When your forex trading adventure begins, you’ll likely be met with a swarm of different methods for trading. However, most trading opportunities can be easily identified with just one of four chart indicators. Once you know how to use the Moving Average, RSI, Stochastic, & MACD indicator, you’ll be well on your way to executing your trading plan like a pro. You’ll also be provided with a free reinforcement tool so that you’ll know how to identify trades using these forex indicators every day.

THE BENEFITS OF A SIMPLE STRATEGY

Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Traders often feel that a complex trading strategy with many moving parts must be better when they should focus on keeping things as simple as possible. This is because a simple strategy allows for quick reactions and less stress.

If you’re just getting started, you should seek the most effective and simple strategies for identifying trades and stick with that approach.

DISCOVER THE BEST FOREX INDICATORS FOR A SIMPLE STRATEGY

One way to simplify your trading is through a trading plan that includes chart indicators and a few rules as to how you should use those indicators. In keeping with the idea that simple is best, there are four easy indicators you should become familiar with using one or two at a time to identify trading entry and exit points:

• Moving Average
• RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• Slow Stochastic
• MACD

Once you are trading a live account a simple plan with simple rules will be your best ally. 

USING FOREX INDICATORS TO READ CHARTS FOR DIFFERENT MARKET ENVIRONMENTS

There are many fundamental factors when determining the value of a currency relative to another currency. Many traders opt to look at the charts as a simplified way to identify trading opportunities – using forex indicators to do so.

When looking at the charts, you’ll notice two common market environments. The two environments are either ranging markets with a strong level of support and resistance or floor and ceiling the price isn’t breaking through or a trending market where the price is steadily moving higher or lower.

Using technical analysis allows you as a trader to identify range bound or trending environments and then find higher probability entries or exits based on their readings. Reading the indicators is as simple as putting them on the chart.

TRADING WITH MOVING AVERAGES

One of the best forex indicators for any strategy is moving average. Moving averages make it easier for traders to locate trading opportunities in the direction of the overall trend. When the market is trending up, you can use the moving average or multiple moving averages to identify the trend and the right time to buy or sell.

The moving average is a plotted line that simply measures the average price of a currency pair over a specific period of time, like the last 200 days or year of price action to understand the overall direction.

You’ll notice a trade idea was generated above only by adding a few moving averages to the chart. Identifying trade opportunities with moving averages allows you to see and trade-off of momentum by entering when the currency pair moves in the direction of the moving average and exiting when it begins to move opposite.

TRADING WITH RSI

The Relative Strength Index or RSI is an oscillator that is simple and helpful in its application. Oscillators like the RSI help you determine when a currency is overbought or oversold, so a reversal is likely. For those who like to ‘buy low and sell high’, the RSI may be the right indicator for you.

The RSI can be used equally well in trending or ranging markets to locate better entry and exit prices. When markets have no clear direction and are ranging, you can take either buy or sell signals like you see above. When markets are trending, it becomes more obvious which direction to trade (one benefit of trend trading) and you only want to enter in the direction of the trend when the indicator is recovering from extremes.

Because the RSI is an oscillator, it is plotted with values between 0 and 100. The value of 100 is considered overbought and a reversal to the downside is likely whereas the value of 0 is considered oversold and a reversal to the upside is commonplace. If an uptrend has been discovered, you would want to identify the RSI reversing from readings below 30 or oversold before entering back in the direction of the trend.

TRADING WITH STOCHASTICS

Slow stochastics are an oscillator like the RSI that can help you locate overbought or oversold environments, likely making a reversal in price. The unique aspect of trading with the stochastic indicator is the two lines, %K and %D line to signal our entry.

Because the oscillator has the same overbought or oversold readings, you simply look for the %K line to cross above the %D line through the 20 levels to identify a solid buy signal in the direction of the trend.

TRADING WITH THE MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE & DIVERGENCE (MACD)

Sometimes known as the king of oscillators, the MACD can be used well in trending or ranging markets due to its use of moving averages provide a visual display of changes in momentum.

After you’ve identified the market environment as either ranging or trading, there are two things you want to look for to derive signals from this indicator. First, you want to recognize the lines in relation to the zero lines which identify an upward or downward bias of the currency pair. Second, you want to identify a crossover or cross under the MACD line (Red) to the Signal line (Blue) for a buy or sell trade, respectively.

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THE 3 MOST COMMON EMOTIONS TRADERS EXPERIENCE

 Some of the most common emotions traders experience include fear, nervousness, conviction, excitement, greed, and overconfidence.

Fear/Nervousness

A common cause of fear is trading too big. Trading with improper size magnifies volatility unnecessarily and causes you to make mistakes you normally wouldn’t make if you weren’t under the stress of risking larger losses than normal.

Another culprit for fear (or nervousness) is you are in the ‘wrong’ trade, meaning one that doesn’t fit your trading plan.

Conviction/Excitement

Conviction and excitement are key emotions you’ll want to feed off, and you should feel these in every trade you enter. Conviction is the final piece of any good trade, and if you don’t have a level of excitement or conviction then there is a good chance you are not in the ‘right’ trade for you.

By ‘right’ we mean the correct trade according to your trading plan. Good trades can be losers just as bad trades can be winners. The idea is to keep yourself winning and losing on only good trades. Making sure you have a conviction on trade will help ensure this.

Greed/Overconfidence

If you find yourself only wanting to take trades that you deem as possible big winners, you could be getting greedy. Your greed may have been the result of doing well, but if you aren’t careful you may slip and end up in a drawdown.

Always check that you are using proper trade mechanics (i.e. sticking to stops, targets, good risk/management, good trade set-ups). Sloppy trading as a result of overconfidence can end a strong run.

Learn more about managing greed and fear while trading.

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Today's Dax Analysis

#DAX #ANALYSIS by MONEY LIFE RESEARCH!!!

Bullish opening with gap but the historical highs are again a strong resistance and it cannot with them, at least for now.  Today is a holiday in the USA so the day can be a bit boring.  As for data there is nothing relevant.

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Crude Oil Slips as OPEC, IEA Cut Demand Outlook

 CRUDE OIL, GOLD, OPEC, IEA, COMMODITIES BRIEFING – TALKING POINTS:

• Crude oil ends an 8-day winning streak as IEA, OPEC cut demand outlook.
• Gold slips on better-than-expected US jobless claims figures.
• Stimulus progress will likely determine the short-term trajectory of both commodities

Crude oil ended its longest winning streak in two years overnight, after both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slashed their respective global demand outlooks. The IEA cut its forecast for oil consumption in 2021 by 200,00 barrels a day, stating that “renewed lockdowns, stringent mobility restrictions and a rather slow vaccine rollout in Europe have delayed the anticipated rebound”. OPEC also warned that global demand will rebound slower than previously thought.

However, both organizations continue to remain positive on the longer-term outlook for oil, with the IEA’s oil market division head, Toril Bosoni, stating that “we’re seeing that the outlook for the economy and oil demand in 2021 is looking brighter, despite the near-term weakness because of coronavirus”. Indeed, backwardation of the oil futures curve hints at further upside for crude prices in the coming weeks.

Oil futures curve created using Trading view

Meanwhile, gold prices fell just under 1% overnight, as better-than-expected jobless claims data appeared to diminish the argument for additional fiscal support. That being said, with House and Senate Democrats filing joint budget resolutions that will allow President Biden to pass the majority of his proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package, gold’s downturn could prove short-lived.

The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, and falling real rates of return, are also likely to underpin bullion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it is extremely unlikely that the central bank “even thinks about withdrawing policy support” in the foreseeable future. The upcoming economic docket is fairly light, with consumer sentiment out of the US a notable highlight. Fiscal aid developments will likely dictate the near-term trajectory of both commodities, with a weaker US Dollar probably limiting their respective potential downsides.

USD: US CPI will remain below 2%, but it is the profile that matters.

 USD: US CPI will remain below 2%, but it is the profile that matters.

All eyes are on the speech of the US January CPI and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, considering the emphasis on the theme of reflation and the prospects of the US economy's potential overheating. At 1.6 percent year-on-year, CPI should remain subdued. However, with a sharp acceleration forecast in the second quarter and US CPI spiking to 3.8 percent in May, it is the profile that matters. On the above, though questions are growing as to whether, given the inflation and growth outlooks, the Fed signals a too loose policy set up, Chair Powell is likely to remain cautious today and not deviate from the message of the last FOMC meeting. As US real rates remain profoundly negative, the mix of clear upside price pressures, the risk of overshoot and CPI staying higher for longer, along with a cautious Fed sticking to its Average Inflation Targeting framework to make up for past inflation undershoots, should lead to a lower USD.

Shariah Stock Recommendation

Will Oil Prices Continue Their Climb?

Last week, crude oil prices reached their highest point in more than a year due to decreasing global stockpiles and OPEC supply cuts.

On Wednesday, February 10th, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly report on crude oil inventories, making this a great time to trade this precious commodity.

Crude oil is moving on up! Dwindling supplies & OPEC output cuts are driving oil prices to their highest point in over a year.

The US EIA will release its weekly crude oil inventories report on Wednesday, making this a great time to trade the product.

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Today's Gold Overview

 MARKET VIEW

Weekly changes: XAUUSD -2.89%

Gold went down last week thanks to advances in vaccines stimulating the outlook for a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The metal's appeal as a safe haven is diminishing as investors compare this view to the possibility that further stimulus could weaken the dollar and drive up consumer prices.

KEY POINTS

The price of gold was way oversold, and this has provided the perfect catalyst for retracement later last week.

Non-farm payrolls data has reaffirmed the need of another round of stimulus, which will help the gold price to recover.

Important levels: 1,784, 1,814, 1,827, and 1,848.

                                          Comex Trading Signals

The upward trend is currently continuing its course and is now attacking the historical highs, we will see today if it is able to break them clearly, although it is a holiday in the USA so the day can be quite boring.  As for data, there is nothing relevant today. 

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Bursa Malaysia Stock Signal

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Fundamental and Technical Dax Analysis

 After breaking the downtrend line yesterday, although it had a failed first attempt, the trend has now changed to bullish, but today it has stopped at the first important resistance.  At the moment the short-term trend is upward but if it does not exceed this resistance zone there will be no more rises, so it will be necessary to see if it loads forces to rise again.  Regarding data, today there is the CPI in the EU, and the ADP of employment, and the PMI of services in the USA.

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Check out the news of the past 24 hours

 1️⃣ Debate around the US stimulus package heated up again

 On Sunday, 10 US Republican senators urged President Joe Biden to significantly reduce the $ 1.9 trillion bailout package to win bipartisan support as Democrats  National Assembly owners prepare to step up this stimulus plan.

 Biden has responded by inviting Republican lawmakers to the White House this week for discussion, even as he continues to seek a large stimulus package, spokesman Jen Psaki said.

 - The senators said the meeting was scheduled for Monday afternoon, at 17:00 US time.

 Previously, a top White House economic adviser signaled his readiness to discuss ideas that Republicans came up with, on a $ 600 billion alternative.

 However, Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, told NBC's "Meet the Press" program that President Biden was not ready to compromise.

 Mr. Biden and Democrats are looking to capitalize on their control of the House and Senate to quickly realize the President's primary goal of resolving the pandemic.

 Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Senators will begin working on the stimulus earlier this week, while House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress will finish preliminary steps before the weekend  .

 Mr. Biden has proposed $ 160 billion for vaccines and testing, $ 170 billion for schools and universities, and a direct payment fund to the people worth $ 1,400 per person, and lots of support.  other aid.

 2️⃣ The unemployment rate in the EU is stable

 - European Union statistics office Eurostat has said that unemployment in the Eurozone stabilized at 8.3% in December, despite the blockade continuing in the bloc's regions.

 However, Eurostat said 13,671 million people were unemployed in 19 euro-sharing countries in December, up from 13,616 million in November.

 - In Belgium, Ireland, Cyprus, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Portugal and Slovakia, the real number of unemployed decreased in December, but increased slightly in other countries, such as Germany, France and Italy.

 - To reduce the unemployment rate during the pandemic, eurozone countries have used affiliate systems in which the government subsidizes a portion of the salary to help employers keep employees on the payroll.  their.  This prevents layoffs and means production capacity can be more easily recovered.

 3️⃣ Notable economic facts / data today

 The OPEC + Joint Technical Committee (JTC) and the Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC) will meet today and tomorrow.

 - Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision on interest rates.  Most economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to extend a 100 billion Australian dollar quantitative easing program.

 Tomorrow morning, the FOMC 2021 Ticketing Committee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak at a webinar on job markets hosted by the Federal Reserve and Fed Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland  and Philadelphia organizations.

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Oil prices edged higher on Monday

TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Monday after a weak start, holding on to the past three months of gains, although patchy coronavirus vaccine rollouts, new infections, and the discovery of new variants are keeping a lid on prices.

Brent crude futures were up 10 cents at $55.14 a barrel by 0233 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1 cent to $52.21. Both benchmarks gained nearly 8% in January.

Oil prices have been boosted by vaccination programs getting underway in hard-hit countries and output cuts by major producers like Saudi Arabia. But the euphoria over a possible end to the pandemic has been undermined by the slow pace of vaccinations and the rise of new variants of the coronavirus.

Still, with more vaccines proving successful in trials and infections falling in some areas, demand for oil and fuels is likely to pick up as more of the world's population gets inoculated against COVID-19.

"Demand will recover across the board, led by Asia-Pacific and North America," FitchSolutions said in a research note.

"Europe and Latin America will lag, largely a reflection of softer economic recovery in key markets in these regions," it said.

Oil prices are expected to remain around current levels for most of this year before a recovery gains ground towards year-end, a Reuters poll showed late on Friday.

U.S. oil and gas drillers are gearing up for a pickup in demand and as higher prices make news wells profitable again, adding rigs for the sixth month in a row in January. [RIG/U]

U.S. output is rising and was above 11 million barrels per day in November for the first time since April, according to the Energy Information Administration

                       Bursa Malaysia Stock Tips