Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to remain vulnerable amid climbing yields and strong dollar – Commerzbank

Gold price is on the retreat again. Strategists at Commerzbank expect the yellow metal to stay offered as rising yields lift the dollar.

US interest rate at its highest level since August 2009

“The renewed price weakness was triggered by a noticeably stronger US dollar again and rising bond yields as further pronounced rate hikes by the Fed are anticipated. This puts the real US interest rate using market-based inflation expectations at 1.7%, its highest level since August 2009. This makes gold less attractive as a non-interest-bearing investment.”

“For as long as the headwind generated by the US dollar and climbing (real) yields persist, gold is likely to remain on the defensive.”

WANT DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lifted by Putin, Fed to knock it down – TDS

Gold capitalized on safe-haven flows and climbed above $1,670 as investors seek refuge as Russian President Vladimir Putin announces military mobilization. But eyes are on the Federal Reserve. A hawkish hike is set to weigh on the yellow metal, strategists at TD Securities report.

FOMC to provide more hawkish signals

“Gold is catching a safe-haven bid as Russia has escalated the war in Ukraine with Putin declaring a partial mobilization in Russia and threatening use of nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, it is Fed day, where aggressive Fed expectations are being priced in.”

“The persistence of inflation continues to support an aggressive effort by the Fed, and we expect the FOMC to deliver its third consecutive 75 bps rate hike, bringing the policy stance decidedly above its estimate of the longer-run neutral level. We also look for the Committee to provide more hawkish signals through the update of its economic projections and for Chair Powell to build on his Jackson Hole message.” 

“While prices are certainly weak, precious metals' price action could still have further to fall as the restrictive rates regime is set to last for longer. Indeed, gold and silver prices have tended to display a systematic underperformance when markets expect the real level of the Fed funds rate to rise above the neutral rate, as estimated by Laubach-Williams.”

WANT DIRCT TALK TO OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps closer to Friday’s swing high amid notable USD supply

• Gold catches fresh bids on Monday and turns positive for the second successive day.
• The prevalent USD selling bias turns out to be a key factor boosting the commodity.
• A positive risk tone, the prospects for more aggressive central banks continue to cap.

Gold attracts some dip-buying near the $1,712 area on Monday and turns positive for the second straight day. The XAU/USD refreshes its daily high, around the $1,726-$1,727 region during the European session and moves back closer to a one-and-half-week high touched on Friday.

The US dollar extends last week's sharp retracement slide and remains under intense selling pressure on the first day of a new week. In fact, the USD Index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of currencies, dives to a fresh monthly low and offers support to the dollar-denominated gold.

Given that the markets have already priced in a 75 bps Fed rate hike move in September, subdued action around the US Treasury bond yields turns out to be a key factor weighing on the greenback. Apart from this, growing worries about a deeper global economic downturn further contribute to driving flows towards safe-haven gold.

That said, a positive risk tone - as depicted by a generally upbeat mood around the equity markets - could act as a headwind for the precious metal. Furthermore, the prospects for a more aggressive policy tightening by major central banks warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the non-yielding gold.

Investors might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release on Tuesday. The crucial US CPI report will influence the Fed's policy outlook and dictate the near-term USD trajectory. This, in turn, will help investors to determine the next leg of a directional move for gold.

In the meantime, the XAU/USD is more likely to enter a consolidation phase amid absent relevant market-moving economic data from the US. That said, the US bond yields, the USD price dynamics, along with the broader risk sentiment, might still provide some impetus to gold and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities.

WANT DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERT CPONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to meltdown below the $1,675 mark – TDS

With every downtick, the risk of capitulation in gold is rising. Economists at TD Securities expect the yellow metal to slump below the $1,675 level.

China's appetite for gold has remained resilient

“The top players in Shanghai markets continue to add to their gold length, despite a depreciating CNY. These flows, alongside central bank demand, have likely kept gold from melting in a liquidity vacuum amid a hawkish Fed narrative, Nonetheless, the risk of capitulation from bloated prop-shop positioning is growing with every tick lower in prices as we approach this cohort's pandemic-era entry levels.”

“The downtrend in gold is gaining steam, as the breadth of technical signals short continues to firm.”

“The risk of a breakout in the broad dollar index could coincide with a meltdown below the $1,675 range in gold.”

WANT DIRECT TALK TO OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains on the defensive amid risk-on, Fed rate-hike jitters

Gold attracts some dip-buying on Tuesday, though lacks any strong follow-through.

Retreating US bond yields undermine the USD and offer some support to the metal.

The risk-on impulse caps the upside amid expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes.

Gold reverses a modest intraday dip to the $1,729 area and turns neutral during the first half of the European session, though it lacks any follow-through. The XAU/USD is currently seen exchnaging hands at around the $1,735 region and so far, has struggled to capitalize on the overnight bounce from over a one-month low.

The US dollar meets with a fresh supply for the second straight day and retreats further from a 20-year high touched the previous day, which, in turn, offers some support to the dollar-denominated gold. The ongoing USD profit-taking slide could be solely attributed to another decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which further benefits the non-yielding gold.

The upside, however, remains limited amid firming expectations for a supersized 75 bps Fed rate hike at the September meeting. The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Friday, signalling that interest rates would be kept higher for longer to bring down inflation. This, along with the risk-on impulse, seem to cap gains for gold.

Chinese authorities pledged to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy and boosted investors' confidence. This is evident from a strong rally in the equity markets, which might hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the safe-haven precious metal. This warrants caution before confirming that gold has formed a bottom and positioning for any further gains.

Market participants look forward to the US economic docket - featuring JOLTS Job Openings data and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, might influence the USD. Apart from this, the risk sentiment might contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around gold.

From a technical perspective the pair is in a medium-term downtrend that began in March 2022. This suggests the overall bias is still for lower prices to come. Major, multiple support – comprised of key lows from 2021 as well as the 200-week SMA – kicks in at $1680.00, however, and if price gets that low it will likely find a floor there and, either consolidate or bounce.

The daily chart is more complex and less bearish. Monday's dragon-fly doji candlestick is a bullish reversal insignia which will be confirmed if today (Tuesday, August 30) ends bullishly green – if not then sellers may still prevail. Confirmation would suggest at least the potential for a recovery back up to the 50-day SMA and the swing high at around $1760.00. Furthermore, markets are slow, traditionally a warning to traders not to go short. Many may have gone into wait-and-see mode till the fog clears and the market shows its hand. 

This might not happen until the closely-watched US monthly jobs report, popularly known as NFP, is released on Friday. August's employment figures will provide some insight into the economy's health in the face of rising rates and stubbornly high inflation. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand and gold prices ahead of the next FOMC meeting in September. A better-than-expected figure will suggest the economy is still booming and the Fed has more work to do to tame inflation, strengthening the dollar in the process but depressing gold. A weaker-than-expected result will have the opposite effect and probably help gold prices go higher.  

WANT TO DIRECT TALK WITH OUR EXPERTS CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD capped by sellers aligned around $1,750

Gold price has been on the back foot, despite the generally negative market mood, currently trading at around $1,745.80 a troy ounce. The metal bottomed at the beginning of the week at $1,727.70, as the dollar outperformed other safe-haven assets throughout the first half of the week. Nevertheless, the greenback got hit by poor US data released on Tuesday, pulling down from its recent highs and correcting extreme overbought conditions against most major rivals. The bright metal peaked at $1,754.07 but so far cannot retain the $1,750 mark, with sellers quickly appearing in attempts to surpass the level. XAU/USD is seen at a critical juncture as bull-bear tug-of-war could set in, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.

Meanwhile, financial markets are relatively quiet at the moment as investors await the US Durable Goods Orders report, expected to post a modest 0.6% advance in July. Such a tepid report will likely exacerbate concerns about a recession and weigh on high-yielding assets. The dollar will likely resume its bullish momentum after the latest pullback and is seen strengthening against its brighten rival. 

XAU/USD bears return after rejection above $1,750

“The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning south once again while below the midline, suggesting that the downside pressure could build up in the sessions ahead.”

“Adding credence to the bearish bias, the 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is fast approaching the 21 DMA from above.”

“A sustained break below the Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the recovery from yearly lows of $1,681 to the August 10 high of $1,808 at $1,729 will open up the downside towards the $1,700 mark.”

“Bulls need a daily closing above the $1,750 psychological level, above which the 38.2% Fibo resistance at $1,760 will be probed. Further up, the meeting point of the 21 and 50 DMAs at $1,769 will be a tough nut to crack for XAU bulls.”

WANT TO DIRECT TALK WITH MY EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles near one-week low amid sustained USD buying

Gold witnesses selling for the second straight day on Tuesday amid modest USD strength.

Hawkish Fed expectations and elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the greenback.

Recession fears could limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Gold attracts fresh selling near the $1,783 region on Tuesday and turns lower for the second successive day. The XAU/USD drops back closer to a one-week low touched the previous day, around the $1,774 area during the first half of the European session and now seems vulnerable to a further slide.

Following a brief consolidation through the early part of trading on Tuesday, the US dollar gains some positive traction for the third straight day and exerts some pressure on the dollar-denominated gold. Despite last week's softer US CPI report, Fed officials stressed that it is too soon to declare a victory on inflation and have maintained a hawkish tone. This, in turn, suggests that the Fed would stick to its policy tightening path and continues to underpin the greenback.

In fact, the markets are currently pricing in a greater chance of at least a 50 bps rate hike at the next FOMC policy meeting in September. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. The downside, however, seems cushioned, at least for the time being, as investors might now prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Investors would look for clues about the possibility of a larger 75 bps rate hike move in September. This could play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for gold. In the meantime, growing worries about a global economic downturn could lend some support to the safe-haven precious metal. Traders now look forward to the housing market data and Industrial Production figures from the US for some impetus on Tuesday.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from 50-HMA with eyes on Taiwan, US macro

Gold price fades recovery moves as traders struggle for clear directions.

China Caixin Services PMI, mixed Fedspeak favor XAU/USD buyers.

US-China tensions over Taiwan, recession woes keep sellers hopeful.

US ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders may entertain traders but risk catalysts are more important.

Gold price (XAU/USD) fails to extend daily gains around $1,770 amid the early Wednesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the yellow metal buyers struggle for fresh clues to stretch the latest recovery moves inside a trend-widening chart pattern.

Mixed concerns over Taiwan and an absence of strongly hawkish Fed comments seem to restrict immediate XAU/USD moves. Also challenging the gold price is the upbeat prints of China Caixin Services PMI for July contrasting to the official activity numbers at home and abroad, as well as broad recession woes.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi vows to not abandon Taiwan amid Chinese pressure, per Bloomberg, while Taiwan President shows readiness to retaliate Beijing military moves, if any. On the other hand, the private services gauge from the dragon nation rose to 55.5 versus 48 expected and 54.5 prior.

Elsewhere, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester talked down US recession concerns while supporting chatters about the 50 basis points (bps) rate hike in September. However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she is looking for incoming data to decide if they can downshift the rate hikes or continues at the current pace, as reported by Reuters.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.25% intraday while the US 10-year Treasury yields drop 1.5 basis points (bps) to 2.726% at the latest.

Given the market’s indecision, gold traders should wait for the US Factory Orders for June and ISM Services PMI for July. Also important will be to the headlines surrounding China, Taiwan and Fed.

Technical analysis

Gold price pares daily gains inside a one-week-old megaphone trend widening technical chart formation on the hourly play.

That said, the XAU/USD’s latest pullback from the 50-HMA, at $1,770 by the press time, lacks support from the MACD, which in turn hints at the quote’s further advances towards the previous day’s high near $1,788.

However, upper line of the aforementioned megaphone pattern, near $1,790, could challenge the bullion’s further upside.

Meanwhile, pullback moves may initial aim for the stated formation’s support line, close to $1,755, before directing gold sellers towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of July 27 to August 02 upside, near $1,749.

Also acting as the downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $1,740.

Overall, gold price grinds higher and may witness further volatility inside the megaphone.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD surrenders intraday gains amid modest USD strength

Gold price struggles to preserve its modest intraday gains amid the emergence of some USD buying.

The prospects for a more aggressive major central banks also acted as a headwind for the metal.

The downside seems limited ahead of this week’s key US macro releases and the FOMC decision.

Gold price attracted some selling near the $1,728 region on Tuesday and retreated to the lower end of its daily range during the first half of the European session. The XAUUSD was last seen trading just below the $1,720 level, nearly unchanged for the day.

The US dollar staged a goodish rebound from the vicinity of its lowest level since July 5 touched the previous day, which, in turn, acted as a headwind for the dollar-denominated gold. This, along with the prospects for a more aggressive move by major central banks to curb soaring inflation, was seen as another factor weighing on the non-yielding yellow metal.

Gold price struggles to preserve its modest intraday gains amid the emergence of some USD buying.

The prospects for a more aggressive major central banks also acted as a headwind for the metal.

The downside seems limited ahead of this week’s key US macro releases and the FOMC decision.

Gold price attracted some selling near the $1,728 region on Tuesday and retreated to the lower end of its daily range during the first half of the European session. The XAUUSD was last seen trading just below the $1,720 level, nearly unchanged for the day.

The US dollar staged a goodish rebound from the vicinity of its lowest level since July 5 touched the previous day, which, in turn, acted as a headwind for the dollar-denominated gold. This, along with the prospects for a more aggressive move by major central banks to curb soaring inflation, was seen as another factor weighing on the non-yielding yellow metal.

WANT DIRECT TALK WITH OUR SENIOR EXPERTS, VISIT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Futures: Upside looks limited

Open interest in gold futures markets dropped by around 9.6K contracts on Thursday according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume, instead, went up for the second session in a row, this time by around 87.4K contracts.

Gold looks supported around $1,680

Thursday’s moderate rebound in prices of the ounce troy of gold was on the back of decreasing open interest, leaving the prospects for further upside somewhat diminished. On the upside, there is a strong support around the $1,680 region, where also converges the 2021 low.

Get chance to connect with our experts!
JOIN NOW:MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD hits two-week low, near $1,815 ahead of central bank speakers

Gold remained on the defensive for the third straight day and dropped to a nearly two-week low.

Modest USD strength was seen as a key factor that undermined the dollar-denominated metal.

Recession fears, sliding US bond yields might help limit losses ahead of key central bank speakers.

Gold prolonged this week's rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA and edged lower for the third successive day on Wednesday. The downtick dragged spot prices to a nearly two-week low, around the $1,816-$1,815 region during the early European session.

The overnight hawkish remarks by New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco’s Mary Daly lifted bets for a faster policy tightening by the US central bank. This assisted the US dollar to build on the previous day's strong move up, which, in turn, undermined demand for the dollar-denominated gold.

Market participants, however, remain divided over the need for a more aggressive Fed rate hike amid growing recession fears. This, along with a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields and the prevalent cautious market mood, could offer some support to the non-yielding yellow metal and help limit deeper losses.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the key event risk. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are due to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday.

Investors will look for fresh clues about the central bank's tightening path, which will play a key role in driving gold price in the near term. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment, the US bond yields, and the USD price dynamics would help determine the next leg of a directional move for the XAUUSD.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears have the upper hand below 200-DMA amid hawkish Fed

Gold witnessed some selling on Thursday and was pressured by a combination of factors.

Hawkish Fed expectations underpinned the USD and exerted pressure on the commodity.

Recession fears weighed on investors’ sentiment and should limit losses for the XAUUSD.

Gold continued with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction and remained below the very important 200-day SMA through the early part of the European session. The XAUUSD was last seen trading just below the $1,935 level, down over 0.25% for the day.

The markets seem convinced that the Fed would retain its aggressive policy tightening path and have been pricing in another 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in July. The bets were reaffirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying that the ongoing rate increases will be appropriate. During his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell added that Fed is strongly committed to bringing inflation back down and the pace of future rate increases will continue to depend on incoming data. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that continued acting as a headwind for the non-yielding gold.

Apart from this, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying exerted some downward pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity. The downside, however, seems cushioned, at least for the time being, amid the prevalent risk-off mood, which tends to benefit the safe-haven gold. The market sentiment remains fragile amid doubts that major central banks could hike interest rates to curb soaring inflation without affecting economic growth. Adding to this, the disappointing release of the flash Eurozone PMI prints for June added to worries about a possible recession and weighed on investors' sentiment.

The global flight to safety dragged the US Treasury bond yields lower, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and further help limit losses for gold. That said, acceptance below a technically significant 200-day SMA favours bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. It, however, would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before traders start positioning for any further near-term depreciating move. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second day of testimony for a fresh trading impetus.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD treads water around $1.840 amid sluggish USD, light trading

Gold Price erases recovery gains after bulls run into the 21 DMA barricade.

US dollar starts the week on the back foot amid a better risk environment.

America observes the Juneteenth holiday, leaving XAUUSD in limbo.

Gold Price is trading modestly flat around $1,840, reversing the rebound seen in the Asian session. The recovery in risk sentiment is boding ill for the safe-haven US dollar, in turn, capping the downside in the bright metal.

Thinner liquidity conditions on account of the Juneteenth holiday in the US also leave the dollar bulls at bay, helping the metal find a floor.

The upside in XAUUSD, however, remains capped, as investors remain wary amid the aggressive Fed’s tightening path. The Fed hiked the key policy rates by 75 bps last week while leaving doors open for a 75 bps increase in July, as the world’s central bank remains committed to fighting inflation.

Meanwhile, gold price also lacks the follow-through recovery momentum, as the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, hit fresh monthly lows below 2.60%. The yellow metal is often considered a hedge against inflation.

Markets now remain focused on the testimony from ECB President Christine Lagarde for fresh hints on the monetary policy, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment, which may affect gold dynamics. Next of note for the metal remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony due later this week.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to shrug off ECB meeting 

Gold is on standby ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Economists at Commerzbank expect the ECB decision to be ignored by the yellow metal.

Gold is popular with central banks as a safe haven and store of value

“We believe that the ECB will decide today to bring its bond purchases to an end at the start of the third quarter. In addition, it is likely to signal fairly clearly that interest rates will be raised at its next meeting in July and that the deposit rate will no longer be negative by the end of September. This would imply that the next rate hike will come in September.”

“We believe it is questionable whether any statement will be made about the longer-term interest rate outlook, as there is still a lack of consensus on this issue within the ECB Governing Council. The hawkish remarks expected from Lagarde are probably already priced in, for the most part, so under normal circumstances, we would not expect any major reaction from the gold price this afternoon.” 

“According to a survey of nearly 60 central banks conducted by the World Gold Council (WGC), about a quarter of central banks are planning to top up their gold reserves in the next twelve months. What is more, the majority of survey respondents expect the proportion of gold in the currency reserves to increase in the next few years.” 

“The WGC says that gold is popular with central banks as a safe haven and store of value. Furthermore, gold is expected to perform better in times of crisis. That said, central banks have been buying considerably less gold of late.”

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price manages to hold above key support, awaits next catalyst

Gold Price is fluctuating in a tight range near $1,850 on Monday.

10-year US T-bond yield stays flat following last week's rally.

Strong near-term support seems to have formed at $1,840.

Gold Price moves sideways near $1,850 at the start of the week following the sharp drop witnessed on Friday. Trading conditions remain thin due to the Whit Monday holiday in Europe. The US economic docket will not be offering any high-impact data releases and XAUUSD is likely to continue to fluctuate between key technical levels.

Rising US yields limit gold's upside

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 390,000 in May, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 325,000. Further details of the report showed that the Labor Force Participation Rate improved modestly to 62.3% and the annual wage inflation edged lower to 5.2% as expected. The US Treasury bond yields shot higher on the upbeat US jobs report and forced gold to erase its weekly gains. The benchmark 10-year yield rose more than 7% last week and snapped a three-week losing streak. At the time of press, the 10-year yield was moving up and down in a narrow channel near 2.95%.

Gold Price could react to ECB, US inflation data

Later in the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged. The bank is set to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points in July with the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) coming to an end in July. According to Bloomberg, some policymakers want ECB President Christine Lagarde to deliver a convincing message that borrowing costs of vulnerable countries will be contained and fragmentation will not be allowed. A strong reaction in XAUEUR to ECB's policy announcements could impact XAUUSD's movements in the second half of the week.

The most important data release of the week will be the May inflation report from the US on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI are forecast to decline to 8.2% and 5.9%, respectively, on a yearly basis. With the NFP data confirming that labor market conditions remain tight in the US, stronger-than-expected CPI figures are likely to trigger another leg higher in US yields and make it difficult for gold to find demand. On the other hand, a retreat in consumer inflation could cause investors to start pricing in a pause in Fed rate hikes in September and help XAUUSD push higher.

Ahead of the above-mentioned key events, XAUUSD could have a hard time making a decisive move in either direction. The market mood seems to have turned upbeat at the beginning of the week. In case risk flows continue to dominate the markets, the dollar could lose interest and help gold hold its ground. In that scenario, however, US yields could gain traction and not allow gold to turn north.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD slides back under 200DMA as buck/yields rise ahead of key US data releases

Gold is trading around $1830, having dropped back below its 200DMA as the buck/US yields rise pre-key US data releases.

Gold bulls want to see evidence of weakening US growth/inflationary pressures and a paring of Fed tightening bets.

As the rise in longer-term US bond yields enters its third day, with the 10-year yield now up around 17 bps versus last week’s lows around 2.70%, and as the US Dollar Index’s recovery from this week’s multi-month lows extends, spot gold (XAU/USD) prices have not surprisingly come under pressure. XAU/USD was last trading around the $1830 per troy ounce mark, below its 200-Day Moving Average at $1840 and taking losses on the week to around 1.1%.

Key upcoming US economic data is in focus, the most important release being Friday’s May labour market report, though traders will also closely scrutinised Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI survey that is slated for release at 1400GMT. Gold bulls want to see evidence that inflationary pressures are backing off, meaning people will be watching the Prices Paid subindex of Wednesday’s ISM PMI survey and the wage growth component of Friday’s jobs report.

Any such evidence will lessen the pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy settings quite so aggressively beyond the planned 50 bps rate hikes at the June and July meetings. Gold bulls will also want to simultaneously see evidence of a slowing US economy, as this further spurs the demand for safe-haven assets (like gold) and reduces pressure on the Fed to hike. In the best-case scenario of weak/less inflationary data in the coming days, if that also spurs a drop once again in the US dollar/US yields, XAU/USD might well recover back to the north of its 200DMA and the $1850 mark.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold PriceGold Price Forecast: Battle lines well-defined for XAUUSD amid light trading 

Gold Price is supported above $1,850 amid holiday-thinned trading.

US dollar remains on the defensive amid a risk-on market mood.

XAUUSD is struggling amid a bunch of healthy resistance and support levels.

Gold Price is giving a part of its early gains but appears supported amid holiday-thinned market conditions. The US dollar is seeing a dip-buying demand, despite the risk-on trading on global stocks. Investors continue assessing the China covid easing optimism and subsiding aggressive Fed’s tightening bets against signs of slowing in the US economy. Therefore, gold price is seen fluctuating between gains and losses while defending the $1,850 barrier. The EU Summit on Ukraine crisis is closely followed, as Russia’s oil embargo is likely to be part of EU sanctions package. These developments could affect the broader market sentiment, significantly impacting the dollar and XAUUSD price.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH Forecast: Battle lines well-defined for XAUUSD amid light trading 

Gold Price is supported above $1,850 amid holiday-thinned trading.

US dollar remains on the defensive amid a risk-on market mood.

XAUUSD is struggling amid a bunch of healthy resistance and support levels.

Gold Price is giving a part of its early gains but appears supported amid holiday-thinned market conditions. The US dollar is seeing a dip-buying demand, despite the risk-on trading on global stocks. Investors continue assessing the China covid easing optimism and subsiding aggressive Fed’s tightening bets against signs of slowing in the US economy. Therefore, gold price is seen fluctuating between gains and losses while defending the $1,850 barrier. The EU Summit on Ukraine crisis is closely followed, as Russia’s oil embargo is likely to be part of EU sanctions package. These developments could affect the broader market sentiment, significantly impacting the dollar and XAUUSD price.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD bears eye $1,838 and $1,836 as next downside targets

Gold Price is back in the red, falling for the second straight day.

Less hawkish Fed minutes failed to impress gold bulls but not for long.

XAUUSD inches closer towards critical 200-DMA support ahead of US data.

Gold Price is feeling the pull of gravity after less hawkish FOMC minutes released on Wednesday offered a brief reprieve to XAU bulls. The bright metal is extending the retreat from two-week highs of $1,870, as the US dollar clings onto minor recovery gains amid a cautious risk environment. The precious metal, however, seems to find some comfort from falling Treasury yields, as investors digest the latest Fed minutes, which squashed hopes for a more than 50 bps rate hike in the coming months. Going forward, gold’s fate hinges on the key US GDP, Pending Home Sales and PCE data, as it could impact the central bank’s expectations.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD benefits from softening buck, lower US yields, eyes test of 200-DMA

Gold is higher amid risk-off flows, a weaker buck and lower US yields.

XAU/USD is eyeing a test of its 200-DMA around $1,837 once again.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices are trading around $1,830 per troy ounce and once again eyeing a test of the 200-Day Moving Average around $1,837, having gained around $15 (or around 0.8%) thus far on the session. Risk-off flows in the global equity space have continued on Thursday after Wall Street’s worst day in nearly two years on Wednesday as investors continue to fret about softening global growth expectations at a time when major central banks (namely the Fed and to a lesser extent the BoE and ECB) appear intent on aggressive monetary tightening.

That is a toxic combination for equities and investors have begun seeking out safety in traditional safe-haven assets such as US bonds, even though US bond valuations have been hit hard in recent months by the hawkish shift in the Fed’s stance. Either way, on Thursday US yields (nominal and real) are lower and this is dampening the appeal of the US dollar as a safe-haven currency, with the likes of the Swiss franc and yen performing better.

The combination of lower yields, which reduces the “opportunity cost” of holding non-yielding gold, and a weaker US dollar, which reduces the price of USD-denominated commodities like XAU/USD for foreign buyers, is having the dual effect of supporting gold on Thursday. But whether these trends will continue, and whether XAU/USD will be able to break above its 200-DMA and out of its recent bearish trend, remains to be seen.

In recent weeks, buying USD dips and selling gold rallies has been a highly profitable strategy. As long as markets continue to believe that the Fed will follow through with as much monetary tightening as it has been promising, gold’s chances of rebounding back to the, say, upper-$1,800s look limited. Looking to the immediate future, a few tier two US data releases on Thursday in the form of the May Philadelphia Manufacturing survey, the weekly initial jobless claims report and April Existing Home Sales probably won’t move markets much. But the data will likely keep focus on the overarching themes of slowing growth, inflation and central bank tightening.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH

Gold Down as Investors Continue Digesting Hawkish Powell Remarks

Gold was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, with the dollar continuing its retreat from a 20-year high and countering pressure from stronger Treasury yields. Investors also digested the latest hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Gold futures were down 0.59% to $1,808.24 by 12:48 AM ET (4:48 AM GMT). The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, edged up on Wednesday but extended its decline into a fourth day. Investors’ increased appetites for riskier bets also took the edge off the safe-haven greenback's appeal.

Powell on Tuesday pledged that the U.S. central bank would hike interest rates as needed to curb sky-high inflation that he said threatened the foundation of the economy. The Fed has hiked its interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in 2022 to date and is on track to hike it again in half-percentage-point increments at its next two meetings in June and July 2022.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak, and a G-7 finance ministers and central bankers meeting will take place, later in the day.

In Asia Pacific, Japan’s GDP contracted 1% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2022, while Australia’s wage price index grew 2.4% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter.

Strong U.S. retail sales and factory data for April gave investor sentiment a boost, with consumers purchasing motor vehicles and frequenting restaurants, showing no signs of a slowdown in demand despite high inflation.

In other precious metals, silver and palladium edged up 0.2%, while platinum inched up 0.1%.

WANT TO DIRECT TALK OUR MARKET EXPERT CONTACT MONEY LIFE RESEARCH