ℹ️ #DAX #ANALYSIS
The DAX is having a strong drop at the opening but it has also just bounced quite quickly in the important support of the 13820 area. It is clear that the loss of this support would lead to continuity in the falls. While at the top until the maximum on Friday is not exceeded there would not be a new attack on maximums. As for data, today there is the German IFO and a speech by the president of the ECB.
#DAX #ANALYSIS by MONEY LIFE RESEARCH!!!
Bullish opening with gap but the historical highs are again a strong resistance and it cannot with them, at least for now. Today is a holiday in the USA so the day can be a bit boring. As for data there is nothing relevant.
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CRUDE OIL, GOLD, OPEC, IEA, COMMODITIES BRIEFING – TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil ended its longest winning streak in two years overnight, after both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slashed their respective global demand outlooks. The IEA cut its forecast for oil consumption in 2021 by 200,00 barrels a day, stating that “renewed lockdowns, stringent mobility restrictions and a rather slow vaccine rollout in Europe have delayed the anticipated rebound”. OPEC also warned that global demand will rebound slower than previously thought.
However, both organizations continue to remain positive on the longer-term outlook for oil, with the IEA’s oil market division head, Toril Bosoni, stating that “we’re seeing that the outlook for the economy and oil demand in 2021 is looking brighter, despite the near-term weakness because of coronavirus”. Indeed, backwardation of the oil futures curve hints at further upside for crude prices in the coming weeks.
Oil futures curve created using Trading view
Meanwhile, gold prices fell just under 1% overnight, as better-than-expected jobless claims data appeared to diminish the argument for additional fiscal support. That being said, with House and Senate Democrats filing joint budget resolutions that will allow President Biden to pass the majority of his proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package, gold’s downturn could prove short-lived.
The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, and falling real rates of return, are also likely to underpin bullion. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it is extremely unlikely that the central bank “even thinks about withdrawing policy support” in the foreseeable future. The upcoming economic docket is fairly light, with consumer sentiment out of the US a notable highlight. Fiscal aid developments will likely dictate the near-term trajectory of both commodities, with a weaker US Dollar probably limiting their respective potential downsides.
USD: US CPI will remain below 2%, but it is the profile that matters.
All eyes are on the speech of the US January CPI and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, considering the emphasis on the theme of reflation and the prospects of the US economy's potential overheating. At 1.6 percent year-on-year, CPI should remain subdued. However, with a sharp acceleration forecast in the second quarter and US CPI spiking to 3.8 percent in May, it is the profile that matters. On the above, though questions are growing as to whether, given the inflation and growth outlooks, the Fed signals a too loose policy set up, Chair Powell is likely to remain cautious today and not deviate from the message of the last FOMC meeting. As US real rates remain profoundly negative, the mix of clear upside price pressures, the risk of overshoot and CPI staying higher for longer, along with a cautious Fed sticking to its Average Inflation Targeting framework to make up for past inflation undershoots, should lead to a lower USD.
Last week, crude oil prices reached their highest point in more than a year due to decreasing global stockpiles and OPEC supply cuts.
On Wednesday, February 10th, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly report on crude oil inventories, making this a great time to trade this precious commodity.
Crude oil is moving on up! Dwindling supplies & OPEC output cuts are driving oil prices to their highest point in over a year.
The US EIA will release its weekly crude oil inventories report on Wednesday, making this a great time to trade the product.
What are you waiting for? Apply Now at www.moneyliferesearch.com and get the best crude oil trading signals for making the best profits on your MT4 account.
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MARKET VIEW
Weekly changes: XAUUSD -2.89%
Gold went down last week thanks to advances in vaccines stimulating the outlook for a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
The metal's appeal as a safe haven is diminishing as investors compare this view to the possibility that further stimulus could weaken the dollar and drive up consumer prices.
KEY POINTS
The price of gold was way oversold, and this has provided the perfect catalyst for retracement later last week.
Non-farm payrolls data has reaffirmed the need of another round of stimulus, which will help the gold price to recover.
Important levels: 1,784, 1,814, 1,827, and 1,848.
USD Index Price Analysis: A drop to the 200-day SMA cannot be ruled out DXY breaks below the 106.00 support to clinch new multi-month lows. ...
