Showing posts with label #oiltrading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #oiltrading. Show all posts

Friday, August 12, 2022

Brent Oil to trade at only $90 by year-end – Commerzbank



Following last week’s massive setback, the latest recovery of oil prices is likely to falter. In the view of strategists at Commerzbank, oil prices should continue to decline until the end of the year.


Market will be amply supplied in the coming months

“The oil market should be more than amply supplied for the time being.”


“We now envisage a Brent price of only $90 by year-end.”


“The EU oil embargo that will come into force at the end of the year will probably prevent any further price slide.”

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Friday, July 29, 2022

Oil prices rise as chances of OPEC+ supply boost dim



Oil prices rose in European trading on Friday as attention turned to next week's OPEC+ meeting and expectations that it will dash U.S. hopes for a supply boost.


Brent crude futures for September settlement, due to expire on Friday, gained $2.30 to trade at $109.44 a barrel by 1200 GMT after touching their highest since July 5. The more active October contract was up $2.24 at $104.07.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $2.20 to $98.62 a barrel.


Both contracts are set for a second monthly loss, however, down 4.7% and 6.8% respectively.


A weaker dollar and stronger equities also lent support on Friday. A fall in the dollar makes oil cheaper for buyers with other currencies.


Global equities, which often move in tandem with oil prices, were up on the hope that U.S. monetary tightening would not be as hawkish as initially expected after disappointing growth figures. [MKTS/GLOB]


A Reuters survey forecast Brent and U.S. crude would average $105.75 and $101.28 a barrel respectively this year. [OILPOLL]


Front-month Brent futures are selling at a rising premium to later-loading months in a market structure known as backwardation, indicating tight current supply.


"The oil market in Europe is considerably tighter than in the U.S., which is also reflected in the sharply falling Brent forward curve," said Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) analyst Carsten Fritsch.


A key driver will be the next meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, on Aug. 3.


OPEC+ sources said the group will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September, with two OPEC+ sources saying a modest increase would be discussed.


A decision not to raise output would disappoint the United States after U.S. President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia this month hoping to strike a deal to open the taps.


Analysts, however, said it would be difficult for OPEC+ to boost supply, given that many producers are already struggling to meet production quotas.


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Thursday, June 16, 2022

Russia's Novak: Oil market is balanced but there are lots of uncertainties



Following his meeting with Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that they have discussed forecasts on oil prices.

"It is important to continue joint work at OPEC+ to avoid collapse on the oil market," Novak added and noted that the oil market is currently balanced while acknowledging that there were lots of uncertainties.

Market reaction

Crude oil prices showed no immediate reaction to these comments and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was last seen trading at $113.50, where it was down 2% on a daily basis.

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Saturday, April 30, 2022

Shelling in Russia’s Bryansk region hits parts of oil terminal – Russian news agencies



Russian air defences prevented a Ukrainian aircraft from entering the Bryansk region on Saturday, Russian news outlets reported citing the region’s governor, adding that as a result shelling hit parts of an oil terminal and adjacent territory.

Russian air defences prevented a Ukrainian aircraft from entering the Bryansk region on Saturday, Russian news outlets reported citing the region’s governor, adding that as a result shelling hit parts of an oil terminal and adjacent territory.

“There are no victims,” RIA news agency cited the governor, Alexander Bogomaz, as saying. He added that a logistics building at the terminal was damaged.

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Monday, April 18, 2022

 Saudi Feb crude exports hit near two-year high



Saudi Arabia's crude exports in February rose to 7.307 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest level since April 2020, official data showed on Monday.


Crude oil exports in February rose 4.4% from about 7 million bpd reported for January.


The world's largest oil exporter's February crude production also rose to its highest level in nearly two years at 10.225 million bpd from 10.145 million bpd in the previous month.


Saudi Arabia's domestic crude refinery throughput fell 0.271 million bpd to 2.506 million bpd in February while direct crude burn fell 111,000 bpd to 291,000 bpd.


Monthly export figures are provided by Riyadh and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), which published them on its website.


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Wednesday, April 6, 2022

 European Stocks Lower; More Russian Sanctions, Aggressive Fed Weigh

European stock markets traded lower Wednesday, weighed by the likely imposition of new Western sanctions on Russia as well as concerns of aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.


By 3:40 AM ET (0740 GMT), the DAX in Germany traded 0.5% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.5% while U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.1%.


The United States and Europe are set to announce later Wednesday new sanctions to punish Moscow over alleged atrocities in Ukraine, something Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky described as "war crimes" in a speech to the United Nations security council.




The European Commission has already proposed new sanctions including banning Russian coal imports and halting trade worth nearly 20 billion euros ($22 billion), and the White House said late Tuesday that its new measures will target Russian banks and officials and ban investment in Russia.


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions already levied by the West as punishment have roiled markets, causing sharp rises in commodity prices, prompting fears of sharply slower growth this year. 


German factory orders fell 2.2% on the month in February in the runup to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, falling for the first time in four months and underscoring concerns over weaker growth in Europe’s largest economy. 


Also, dragging on the European markets are set to receive a negative handover from Asia and Wall Street after comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard raised expectations of aggressive interest rate rises by the U.S. central bank, added to by hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, normally seen as one of the more dovish members of the central bank policymakers.


This puts the focus firmly on the release later Wednesday of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting, with investors looking for clues over the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike at the U.S. central bank's next meeting in May.


In corporate news, Volkswagen (DE:VOWG_p) stock fell 2.7% after the German carmaker’s finance chief Arno Antlitz told the Financial Times that the company is likely to ditch many models by the end of the decade to concentrate on producing fewer cars overall but more profitable premium vehicles.


Vestas Wind Systems (CSE:VWS) stock fell 1.4% after the Danish wind turbine said that it would withdraw from Russia, where the firm has two factories.


Oil prices edged higher Wednesday, with traders having to balance supply concerns on the back of likely new sanctions on Russia with fears of weaker demand after a build in U.S. crude inventories and a prolonged COVID lockdown in Shanghai, the Chinese financial hub.


U.S. crude oil supply data from the industry body American Petroleum Institute, released late Tuesday, showed a build of just over 1 million barrels for last week, compared with the 3-million-barrel draw reported the previous week.


Investors now await official numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later in the session for confirmation.


By 3:40 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.9% higher at $102.86 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 1% to $107.67. 


Additionally, gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,919.50/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.0891.

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