GBP/USD: Rally could extend to 1.1910 and 1.2000 – UOB

Extra upside in GBP/USD could revisit the 1.1910 and even 1.2000 in the short-term horizon, suggested Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “The deeply overbought rally in GBP from Friday appears to be overdone and GBP is unlikely to advance much further. For today, GBP is more likely to trade between 1.1725 and 1.1860.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Despite surging by an outsized 4.08% last week, solid upward momentum suggests there is room for the rally in GBP to extend to 1.1910, possibly 1.2000. The upside risk is intact as long as GBP does not break below the ‘strong support’ level of 1.1660.”

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EURUSD Price Analysis: Solid resistance emerges around 1.0100

• EURUSD comes under pressure near 1.0100 on Wednesday.
• The surpass of this area could allow for extra gains near term.

EURUSD’s strong recovery appears to have met a tough hurdle at the 1.0100 zone so far this week.

If the pair manages to surpass this zone in a sustainable fashion, it could then challenge the September top at 1.0197 (September 12) prior to the August high at 1.0368 (August 10).

While above the 9-month resistance line, today near 0.9840, extra gains look likely.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0450.

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 AUDUSD loses recovery momentum before testing 0.6500

• AUDUSD managed to erase its daily losses but lost its recovery momentum.
• US Dollar holds its ground amid cautious market mood.
• Investors will keep a close eye on Wall Street in the absence of high-impact data releases.

AUDUSD came under bearish pressure and dropped to a fresh daily low below 0.6450 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Although the pair managed to erase its daily losses in the European session, it lost its recovery momentum before reading 0.6500. As of writing, AUDUSD was virtually unchanged on the day at 0.6478.

Eyes on US stocks

Earlier in the day, the data from Australia showed that the National Australia Bank's Business Conditions Index declined to 22 in October from 25 in September. Additionally, the Business Confidence Index fell to 0 from 5. Combined with the disappointing sentiment data, the risk-averse market environment forced AUDUSD to continue to push lower.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index holds in positive territory near 110.50 after having registered modest losses on Monday. Nevertheless, US stock index futures are up between 0.35% and 0.6% on the day and a positive opening in Wall Street could allow risk flows to dominate the action in financial markets.

The NFIB Business Optimism Index in the US declined to 91.3 in October from 92.1 in September but this data failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.

Later in the session, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November will be the only data featured in the US economic docket. The US Mid-Term Elections will also take place but the outcome is likely to be finalized toward the end of the week. 

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The US Dollar is at an advantage against the Euro thanks to the Fed – Commerzbank

Whose monetary policy is more attractive? A comparison of the Fed and ECB shows the US Dollar is more attractive than the Euro, economists at Commerzbank report.

Dollar holds advantage over the Euro

“Fed Chair Jay Powell has pointed out that the Fed is aiming for a key rate level above inflation medium-term. That means the Fed will only stop hiking interest rates or lower them again once it can be sufficiently certain that inflation is easing notably. The impression the ECB is giving to observers is completely different. One gets the impression that Europe’s central bankers have to be forced by high inflation data to get them to hike rates. From the FX market’s point of view that means the Dollar is at an advantage against the Euro.”

“If inflation were to not fall or ease much less than the central banks expect the ECB would always be chasing inflation developments, would stand little chance of anchoring it and would produce negative real interest rates medium-term as a result. The Fed on the other hand would hike its key rate more significantly than it is planning so far. In the end, US Dollar real interest rates would also be positive in that scenario.”

“What is decisive from the FX market’s point of view depends on the rule the central bank applies to set its rates. The Fed’s rule seems to be more suited for protection against negative inflation surprises. That too makes the Dollar attractive, not just the current rate advantage.”

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EURUSD: On course to test the October 13 low near 0.9635 – BBH

EURUSD extends the corrective decline and revisits the 0.9750 region. Economists at BBH expect the worl's most popular currency pair to challenge the October 13 low near 0.9635.

ECB tightening expectations have fallen back a bit

“EURUSD is on track to test the October 21 low near 0.9705 and then the October 13 low near 0.9635.”

“With a big chunk of the eurozone already tipping into recession, can the ECB hike as aggressively as anticipated? It appears that the market is starting to have it doubts.”

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GBP/USD remains stuck between two key DMAs ahead of central banks’ bonanza

• GBP/USD starts November on the right footing amid USD weakness, risk flows.
• Fed and BOE are set to hike policy rates by 75 bps each this week.
• Cable is likely to extend range play between 100 and 50DMAs.

GBP/USD is consolidating the rebound above 1.1500 so far this Tuesday, kicking off November on the right footing. Investors brace for the critical Fed and BOE rate hike decisions, with both the central banks set to announce 75 bps rate increases later this week.

Ahead of the central banks’ bonanza, investors are breathing a sigh of relief, thanks to the FX market repositioning and the rally in Chinese stocks. The risk-on market environment is boding well for the higher-yielding pound sterling at the expense of the safe-haven US dollar.

Attention turns towards the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release, although not much reaction is expected on the data release unless the figure disappoints expectations by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the UK S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI improved to 46.2 in October vs. 45.8 expected and the first reading of 45.8.

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 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Further gains on the cards above 0.9900

• EUR/USD extends the decline to the vicinity of 0.9900.
• The multi-month support line near 0.9900 holds the downside.

EUR/USD comes under further pressure and trades closer to the 0.9900 neighbourhood on Monday.

The 0.9900 region, where the 8-month support line and the 55-day SMA converge, emerges as a quite decent contention zone for the time being. While above this region, the pair could attempt another visit to the October top near 1.0100 (October 27).

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0495.

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GBP/USD could now test the 1.1760 level – UOB

GBP/USD remains firm and could extend the upside momentum to the 1.1760 region in the next weeks, suggest Market Strategist at UOB Group Quek Ser Leang and Economist Lee Sue Ann.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “While we expected GBP to strengthen yesterday, we were of the view ‘1.1600 is unlikely to come into view for now’. In other words, we did not expect the strong surge that sent GBP to a high of 1.1639. Upward momentum is still strong and GBP is likely to rise further, albeit likely at a slower pace. Resistance levels are at 1.1700 and 1.1760. The latter level is unlikely to be challenged today. Support is at 1.1590 but only a break of 1.1540 would indicate that GBP is not strengthening further.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “When GBP was trading at 1.1300 two days ago (25 Oct), we noted that it is mildly supported and could edge higher. After GBP soared, we highlighted yesterday (26 Oct, spot at 1.1460) that the strong boost in momentum is likely to lead to further strength. We indicated that the next resistance is at 1.1600. GBP took out 1.1600 in London trade yesterday and surged to a high of 1.1639. The price action suggests GBP is still strong and is likely to strengthen further. The next level to monitor is at 1.1760. The GBP strength is intact as long as it does not break the ‘strong support’ at 1.1440 (level was at 1.1310 yesterday).”

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 EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Room for extra upside near term

• EUR/JPY adds to Thursday’s gains and prints new highs.
• Further upside could target the 149.80 region in the short term.

EUR/JPY extends the optimism seen in the second half of the week and advances to new cycle highs around 147.60 on Friday.

Considering the current price action in the cross, the door still looks open to extra upside. That said, the immediate target now emerges at the December 2014 high at 149.78 (December 8).

In the short term the upside momentum is expected to persist while above the October lows near 141.00.

In the longer run, while above the key 200-day SMA at 136.85, the constructive outlook for the cross should remain unchanged.

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GBP/USD remains vulnerable, though volatility will drift lower

GBP/USD is on the back foot around 1.1200 as the UK political drama deepens. The British pound remains vulnerable as market pricing for rate hikes looks excessive.

UK political soap opera continues

“The UK political soap opera continues, but Jeremy Hunt’s appointment as Chancellor has separated the politics from economic policy.”

“Ignoring the noise in Westminster, we are left with a dramatic U-turn in fiscal policy, which is now tight enough to harden the economic landing and make the 5.2% that is priced-in for UK rates in 12 months’ time look excessive, outright and relative to the 4.9% priced in for the Fed, or the 3.1% priced for the ECB. This leaves sterling vulnerable, even from here, though surely volatility will drift lower.”

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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rising bets for a drop to 0.9630

EUR/USD fades part of the post-CPI sharp upside on Friday.

Next on the downside now comes the weekly low near 0.9630.

EUR/USD gives aways most of its recent advance to the area just above the 0.9800 mark at the end of the week.

The continuation of the pullback appears on the cards and carries the potential to challenge the recent weekly low at 0.9631 (October 13) in the short-term horizon.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view should remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA at 1.0576.

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EUR/USD could tumble close to the 0.90 level before year-end – MUFG

EUR/USD has dipped under 0.97. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the pair to inch closer to the 0.90 level before the Federal Reserve pauses its hike cycle.

The risks are firmly to the downside

“Over the near-term, the risks are firmly to the downside and we expect a period of further US dollar strength as financial market conditions worsen as asset prices correct further to the downside. This will help push inflation expectations further lower.” 

“The key for any broad turn in US dollar strength must be a pause in the tightening cycle. We suspect the Fed will pause after hiking in December which should allow some EUR/USD correction from levels closer to 0.9000.”

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USD Index Price Analysis: Another drop to 110.00 stays in the pipeline

DXY recedes modestly to the 112.00 region on Friday.

Losses could gather pace and attempt another test of 110.00.

DXY comes under some tepid selling pressure after two consecutive sessions with gains at the end of the week.

The index faces an immediate risk with the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls. A negative surprise could encourage sellers to return to the market and drag the dollar to the area of recent lows in the proximity of the 110.00 mark.

On the upside, there is still scope for a move to the 2022 high near 114.80 (September 28).

The prospects for extra gains in the dollar should remain unchanged as long as the index trades above the 7-month support line near 107.50.

In the longer run, DXY is expected to maintain its constructive stance while above the 200-day SMA at 102.84.

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AUD/USD: Tighter financial conditions to pressure aussie before recovery in 2023 – MUFG

The Australian dollar weakened sharply in September as financial conditions tightened globally. This trend is set to persist for the rest of the year, economists at MUFG Bank report.

Sharp housing market correction is a clear downside risk

“The economy in Australia remains resilient but there are signs of weakness in the housing market. While the still strong labour market is reason for optimism on the outlook for the economy, a sharp housing market correction is a clear downside risk.” 

“With global equities and commodities set for further declines before year-end as major central banks continue to tighten aggressively, we see all currencies weakening further against the US dollar through to year-end. Assuming equities then bottom and central banks are allowed to pause, some reversal for AUD/USD next year seems likely.”

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EUR/USD to remain glued into the lower half of September’s 0.95-1.02 range – SocGen

The US economy dictates EUR/USD prospects. Therefore, the EUR/USD is unlikely to race higher as the American economy continues to outperform the eurozone, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports.

It is hard to see the euro staging much of a rally

“The US has been outperforming the eurozone since mid-2021, and that outperformance has been accompanied by a rising dollar. It shows no signs of abating.”

“We’ll see what this afternoon’s US ISM data throws out (the consensus looks for a fall from 53.8 to 52.4), but if the US economy continues to outperform (in both manufacturing and services ISMs, and in the payroll report at the end of the week), then it’s hard to see the euro staging much of a rally.”

“Easier to see it mostly glued into the lower half of September’s EUR/USD 0.95-1.02 range.” 

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GBP/USD: Bullish bias stays intact, 1.13 in the crosshairs

GBP/USD has gathered further bullish momentum. Pound bulls eye 1.1300 next, 

Buyers retain control of cable’s action

“On the upside, 1.1300 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend, 100-period SMA) aligns as the next target. In case buyers flip that level into support, the pair could continue to push higher toward 1.1400 (static level) and 1.1500 (200-period SMA).”

“First support is located at 1.1130 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) before 1.1100 (psychological level) and 1.1000 (psychological level, 50-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).”

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Germany's Lindner: Not following British down the path of expansionary fiscal policy

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Thursday that they will mobilise Germany's economic strength when necessary, as reported by Reuters.

Regarding the German government's decision to implement a price brake on gas and electricity while providing funding of up to €200 billion for an "economic defence shield," Linder said that these measures should not fuel inflation.

"We are not following the British down the path of expansionary fiscal policy," the minister explained.

Market reaction

The EUR/USD pair retreated from session highs following these comments and was last seen trading at 0.9705, where it was down 0.33% on a daily basis.

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US: International trade deficit narrows to $87.3 billion in August

US international trade deficit narrowed by $29 billion in August.

US Dollar Index clings to small daily gains above 114.00.

The data published by the US Census Bureau showed on Wednesday that the US international trade deficit declined by $2.9 billion to $87.3 billion in August from $90.2 billion in July. 

"Exports of goods for August were $179.8 billion, $1.7 billion less than July exports," the publication read. "Imports of goods for August were $267.1 billion, $4.6 billion less than July imports."

Moreover, the report revealed that the Wholesale Inventories rose by 1.3% in August, higher than the market expectation for an increase of 0.7%.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen posting small daily gains at 114.25.

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GBP/USD slumps to fresh multi-decade lows below 1.1050

GBP/USD is down over 300 pips on the day.

The risk-averse market environment provides a boost to the greenback.

Disappointing data releases from the UK weigh heavily on GBP.

Following a consolidation phase during the Asian trading hours, GBP/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and lost more than 200 pips on the day. As of writing, the pair was trading at its lowest level since 1985 at 1.1045, down nearly 2% on a daily basis.

Earlier in the day, the data from the UK revealed that the business activity in the private sector continued to contract in early September with the preliminary Composite PMI dropping to 48.4 from 49.6 in August. This reading came in below the market expectation of 49.

Furthermore, the Confederation of British Industry's latest Distributive Trades Survey revealed that the Retail Sales Balance plunged to -20 in September from +37 in August and fueled the GBP selloff.

In addition to dismal UK data, the intense flight to safety provides a boost to the dollar and further weighs on the pair. US stock index futures were last seen losing between 1.3% and 1.6% on the day, suggesting that safe-haven flows are likely to continue to dominate the financial markets.

The US economic docket will feature S&P Global's Manufacturing and Services PMI reports later in the day.

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EUR/USD could stage a recovery if it manages to flip 0.9880 into support

EUR/USD recovered modestly during the European trading hours. The pair needs to reclaim 0.9880 to extend the rebound.

The dollar could lose interest in case US stocks rebound

“In case Wall Street's main indexes gain traction after the opening bell, the dollar could deepen its downward correction and allow EUR/USD to continue to stretch higher.”

“0.9880 (former support, static level) forms initial resistance. If EUR/USD manages to rise above that level and starts using it as support, it could target 0.9900 (psychological level), 0.9950 (static level, 20-period SMA on the four-hour chart) and 0.9980 (100-period SMA).”

“On the downside, 0.9800 (psychological level, static level) aligns as first support ahead of 0.9750 (static level from October 2002) and 0.9700 (psychological level).”

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