Check out the news happening in the past week

  1️⃣ The main news last weekend

 Spot gold last week recorded its biggest weekly drop since March 2020.

 Fed Brad is expected to raise rates in 2022.

 Biden said they would review the two sides' infrastructure plans on Monday.

 - Iran's hardline candidate, Lacey is elected president of Iran.

 - Goldman Sachs expects Burundi Oil prices to average $80 per barrel in the third quarter.

 Former Tesla CEO sells $270 million in stock.

 - Bitcoin mining farm in Sichuan simultaneously cut off power.

 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The listed interest rate of the one-year loan market from China to June 21.

 - Fed President St.  Louis Brad and Fed President Dallas Kaplan will deliver speeches on the economic outlook;  In addition, Fed Williams will speak at the next day.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde opened the hearing of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

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Today KLSE Market Open Positive

 Bursa opens easier but rebounds thereafter-

KUALA LUMPUR (April 8): Bursa Malaysia opened easier but rebounded thereafter today, attempting to extend yesterday’s gains, despite the flat overnight performance on Wall Street.

The US stock markets staged a modest recovery after the US Federal Reserve signals no changes to the current bond-buying program.

At 9.10am, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) gained 2.02 points to 1,602.61 from Wednesday’s close of 1,600.59.

The index opened 0.78 of-a-point easier at 1,599.81.

“We believe the foreign buying support yesterday may continue to lift FBM KLCI members in the near term. Given the higher oil prices resulting from the recovery of global economy, coupled with the smooth ongoing COVID-19 vaccination, it should bring some optimism to the market.

“The key index may have a positive bias moves over the near term with the resistance envisaged along 1,615 to 1,635, while the support level is set at 1,565 to 1,575.

It added that sector-focus traders will still look out for the recovery-theme sector such as consumer, aviation, tourism, construction and property on the back of the ongoing vaccination plan on the local front.

Of the heavyweights, Public Bank gained three sen to RM4.25,  Petronas Chemicals added four sen to RM7.99,  while Maybank fell eight sen to RM8.40, Tenaga shed two sen to RM10.24, and IHH Healthcare was flat at RM5.31.

Among the active counters, Luster Industries and its warrant added one sen each to 24.5 sen and 14.5 sen, respectively, DGB Asia and Pasukhas Group edged up half- a-sen each to 6.5 sen and three sen, respectively, while Permaju was flat at 22 sen.

Sector-wise, the Industrial Products and Services Index edged up 0.24 of-a-point to 195.12, the Financial Services Index slipped 15.5 points to 15,363.71, while the Plantation Index went down 17.48 points to 7,060.43.

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Comment on Gold on March 19, 2021

 At the end of the session yesterday, the world gold price had a strong decline from 1755 to 1719 ($ 36), but at the end of the session, the price of gold rebounded and closed the daily candle at 1732 with a tree. candle draw legs. In my opinion, after the gain of Wednesday night, yesterday the price dropped just like that, back to the sideways 1723-1740. So we can trade the precious metal Gold in these 2 margins.

- Moving to the H4 time frame, in my opinion, Gold may still be under downward pressure at the beginning of today's session to come back to test the 1716-1720 price range again. Only consider the signal of a reversal of Gold here. If the precious metal Gold does not pass this price range, it is likely that Gold will have an uptrend again.

- One more thing in my opinion, we should limit trading in the middle of the current price at the beginning of the Asian session to wait for the deep waves of this precious metal to establish an entry position that will be safer for the asset. our account.

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Monthly Overview on Indices

 Monthly change: SPX500 +5%

After reaching the new historical level of 3,960, the SPX500 index has started to decline. Stocks have fallen sharply, and the decline should not come as a surprise to anyone. Valuations in many equities have been at historically high levels.

The index's rally has been driven by the idea that low-interest rates could expand PE multiples. However, yield rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. These higher rates are making the stock market more expensive when compared to bond yields. If stocks need to reprice, it could result in a rather steep equity market sell-off, perhaps more than 20%.

It seems as if technology stocks prices have burned out over the past 12 months and maybe hit the hardest in a repricing environment triggered by rising yield rates. A market drawdown would undoubtedly be welcome after the euphoric run it has had over the last year. The rising-rate environment and overvalued stock market seem to have all come together, creating a perfect situation for this.

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EURO, EUR/USD, US DOLLAR, INFLATION, TREASURY YIELDS

ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP

Risk assets continued to slide lower during the Asia-Pacific trade as an aggressive rise in global bond yields notably weighed on market sentiment. Australia’s ASX 200 plunged 2.35% as yields on local 10-year government bonds surged to the highest levels since April 2019, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 plummeted 3.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped over 3% and China’s CSI 300 fell 1.87%.

In FX markets, the haven-associated USD, JPY, and CHF largely outperformed, while the cyclically-sensitive AUD, NZD, and NOK slid lower. Gold and silver prices lost ground as yields on US 10-year Treasuries held above 1.47%. Looking ahead, US PCE figures for January and consumer sentiment for February headline the economic docket alongside trade balance data out of Mexico.

SURGING REAL YIELDS BUOYING US DOLLAR

Surging bond yields have buoyed the heavily under-fire US Dollar in recent days, and may open the door for the Greenback to claw back lost ground against the Euro in the near term. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries surged to the highest level since early February of 2020, climbing over 14 basis points in 24 hours as investors continue to bet on the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy levers sooner-than-expected.

However, this seems relatively unlikely given the dovish rhetoric of several members of the Federal Reserve over the last few weeks. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic – one of the first to suggest tapering measures at the end of 2021 – is not expecting to Federal Reserve to react prematurely to climbing yields, stating that they “have definitely moved at the longer end, but right now I am not worried about that”.

This reinforces the comments from Jerome Powell at the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress, with Powell reiterating that “the economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and therefore the central bank will maintain its loose approach to monetary policy until “substantial further progress has been made” towards achieving its two mandated goals.

Nevertheless, breakeven inflation rates have stormed to multiyear highs, with the 10-year currently sitting at 2.1% and the 5-year at 2.35%. Real yields have also soared to 9-month highs, while expectations of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike have been pulled forward from early-2024 to early-2023.

These dynamics could open the door for a short-term US Dollar recovery, with attention now intently focused on upcoming PCE figures for the month of January. A larger-than-expected increase in core PCE prices probably intensifying tapering bets and pushing the Greenback higher against its major counterparts.

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KLCI rises 0.77% as select blue chips

KLCI rises 0.77% as select blue chips led by Tenaga lift The main index at Bursa Malaysia rose 0.77% in early trade Wednesday as select index-linked stocks including Tenaga Nasional Bhd advanced, against the backdrop of mixed regional markets.

At 9.05am, the FBM KLCI rose 12.14 points to 1,577.19.

The early gainers included Nestle (M) Bhd, Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Keluarga Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, Frontken Corp Bhd, Aeon Credit Service (M) Bhd, Latitude Tree Holdings Bhd, Tasco Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

 

Bloomberg said U.S. equity futures fluctuated and Asian stocks looked set to slip as investors mulled comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on inflation and growth that spurred swings in stocks and bonds Tuesday.

 

JF Apex Research said US markets ended mixed with the Dow reversing intraday steep losses after the Federal Reserve chairman eased concerns about inflation and rising rates.

 

It said that earlier, European stocks declined following losses in technology counters and rising bond yields.

 

“On the local market, the FBM KLCI lost 5.41 points or 0.34% to 1565.05 points.

“Following the mixed performances in the US and Europe, the FBM KLCI could remain pressured and test the immediate support of 1560 points.

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THE 3 MOST COMMON EMOTIONS TRADERS EXPERIENCE

 Some of the most common emotions traders experience include fear, nervousness, conviction, excitement, greed, and overconfidence.

Fear/Nervousness

A common cause of fear is trading too big. Trading with improper size magnifies volatility unnecessarily and causes you to make mistakes you normally wouldn’t make if you weren’t under the stress of risking larger losses than normal.

Another culprit for fear (or nervousness) is you are in the ‘wrong’ trade, meaning one that doesn’t fit your trading plan.

Conviction/Excitement

Conviction and excitement are key emotions you’ll want to feed off, and you should feel these in every trade you enter. Conviction is the final piece of any good trade, and if you don’t have a level of excitement or conviction then there is a good chance you are not in the ‘right’ trade for you.

By ‘right’ we mean the correct trade according to your trading plan. Good trades can be losers just as bad trades can be winners. The idea is to keep yourself winning and losing on only good trades. Making sure you have a conviction on trade will help ensure this.

Greed/Overconfidence

If you find yourself only wanting to take trades that you deem as possible big winners, you could be getting greedy. Your greed may have been the result of doing well, but if you aren’t careful you may slip and end up in a drawdown.

Always check that you are using proper trade mechanics (i.e. sticking to stops, targets, good risk/management, good trade set-ups). Sloppy trading as a result of overconfidence can end a strong run.

Learn more about managing greed and fear while trading.

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The upward trend is currently continuing its course and is now attacking the historical highs, we will see today if it is able to break them clearly, although it is a holiday in the USA so the day can be quite boring.  As for data, there is nothing relevant today. 

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Fundamental and Technical Dax Analysis

 After breaking the downtrend line yesterday, although it had a failed first attempt, the trend has now changed to bullish, but today it has stopped at the first important resistance.  At the moment the short-term trend is upward but if it does not exceed this resistance zone there will be no more rises, so it will be necessary to see if it loads forces to rise again.  Regarding data, today there is the CPI in the EU, and the ADP of employment, and the PMI of services in the USA.

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Check out the news of the past 24 hours

 1️⃣ Debate around the US stimulus package heated up again

 On Sunday, 10 US Republican senators urged President Joe Biden to significantly reduce the $ 1.9 trillion bailout package to win bipartisan support as Democrats  National Assembly owners prepare to step up this stimulus plan.

 Biden has responded by inviting Republican lawmakers to the White House this week for discussion, even as he continues to seek a large stimulus package, spokesman Jen Psaki said.

 - The senators said the meeting was scheduled for Monday afternoon, at 17:00 US time.

 Previously, a top White House economic adviser signaled his readiness to discuss ideas that Republicans came up with, on a $ 600 billion alternative.

 However, Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, told NBC's "Meet the Press" program that President Biden was not ready to compromise.

 Mr. Biden and Democrats are looking to capitalize on their control of the House and Senate to quickly realize the President's primary goal of resolving the pandemic.

 Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Senators will begin working on the stimulus earlier this week, while House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress will finish preliminary steps before the weekend  .

 Mr. Biden has proposed $ 160 billion for vaccines and testing, $ 170 billion for schools and universities, and a direct payment fund to the people worth $ 1,400 per person, and lots of support.  other aid.

 2️⃣ The unemployment rate in the EU is stable

 - European Union statistics office Eurostat has said that unemployment in the Eurozone stabilized at 8.3% in December, despite the blockade continuing in the bloc's regions.

 However, Eurostat said 13,671 million people were unemployed in 19 euro-sharing countries in December, up from 13,616 million in November.

 - In Belgium, Ireland, Cyprus, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Portugal and Slovakia, the real number of unemployed decreased in December, but increased slightly in other countries, such as Germany, France and Italy.

 - To reduce the unemployment rate during the pandemic, eurozone countries have used affiliate systems in which the government subsidizes a portion of the salary to help employers keep employees on the payroll.  their.  This prevents layoffs and means production capacity can be more easily recovered.

 3️⃣ Notable economic facts / data today

 The OPEC + Joint Technical Committee (JTC) and the Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC) will meet today and tomorrow.

 - Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision on interest rates.  Most economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to extend a 100 billion Australian dollar quantitative easing program.

 Tomorrow morning, the FOMC 2021 Ticketing Committee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak at a webinar on job markets hosted by the Federal Reserve and Fed Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland  and Philadelphia organizations.

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