Check out the news that took place over the weekend

 - Federal Reserve Semi-Annual Report: If inflation expectations continue to be high, monetary policy may be changed.

 - G20 finance ministers and central bank governors reach historic agreement on international tax framework.

 - The European Central Bank's policy guidance will be revised on 22 July.

 Biden signs executive order to promote competition in various industries in the United States.

 - ECB Minutes: Will continue to maintain loose monetary policy.

 - Tokyo Olympic organizers will face an imbalance of revenue and expenditure.

 - Fed Daley: Tight monetary policy should be cautious.

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Dax Analysis By Money Life Research

 ℹ️ #DAX #ANALYSIS

The DAX comes out of the side in which it was immersed, but it is still inside a larger one.  Yesterday he held on to the lows of the month with the help of the USA when he was having a strong panic.  Now we will see if he continues to bounce or falls again to retest the lows for the month.

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Monthly Overview on Indices

 monthly change: SPX500 +3.21%

SPX500 repeated its record-high on June for five consecutive times. The index finished the month at 4,297.50 USD and gained more than 14% year-to-date. The index also posted twenty new week highs from the year's fifty-two total.

The U.S. Senate had accepted President Biden's infrastructure plan, so the equities of the material and industrial sectors pushed up higher, followed by other stocks. Meanwhile, the investors' optimism about the index performance in the following quarters eased, as they realised that the excessive bullish trend could signal the market of its overbought status.

Bank of America did its calculations, stating that Biden's spending plan took the label of global fiscal and monetary stimulus over the last fifteen months to 30,5 trillion USD. This change means the U.S. inflation is now annualising 8%, compared to an average of 3% over the previous century.

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UPDATE ON COMMODITIES

 #XAUUSD or #GOLD | 07/07/21

- The US economy created 850,000 jobs in June. It could be another nail in gold’s coffin. Gold prices attempted to move higher on Monday but failed to gain traction. The dollar rose again putting capping the upside in the yellow metal. The U.S. 10-year yield tumbled on Monday dropping 7-basis points following the softer than expected U.S. ISM service report. The newest employment situation report is negative for the yellow metal mainly because it strengthens the position of hawks within the FOMC. With strong labor market, there are higher chances that the Fed will normalize its monetary policy earlier. As a reminder, some of the central banks believe that the Fed has already reached its inflation targets. So, the labor market target is what’s left. Strong job gains in June moved the US economy much closer to achieving this Fed’s goal and erasing worries that came in the aftermath of the extremely disappointing April reading.

- Technical View: To the upside, if we can clear the 50 day EMA then it is likely we will go higher to fill the gap, sending gold towards the 1860. Short-term momentum has turned positive and generated a crossover buy signal also negative medium-term momentum is decelerating.

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Monthly Overview on Currencies

 Monthly change: EURUSD -2.94%, GBPUSD -2.78%, USDJPY +2.18%, USDCAD +3.72%, AUDUSD -3.94%

DXY ended June at 92.427. This month, the index gained about 3% after the unexpectedly hawkish shift from the Fed at its meeting. The unconventional part is that the ten-year benchmark U.S.Treasury bonds are still yielding 1.48% despite all events. This month was meant to be eventful for the major central banks to declare their monetary policy intentions. None of them, except for the Fed, did it. That's why June 2021 will be remembered as the 'swinging' month for the financial markets. Taking a monthly trading review in EURUSD, the currency pair was downbeat by the Fed's hawkish tone of voice and the absence of any clear steps towards stimuli from ECB. The currency pair ended the month near 1.184, the level of early April this year.

The Bank of England left its policy settings unchanged, as was anticipated. The GBPUSD pair came under intense bearish pressure after that, and the regulator remained speechless towards Fed's statement. The pair lost almost 3% during the month, closing at 1.383.

The Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged. The oil-oriented currency pair was among the few majors, finishing the month with a positive gain. The USDCAD pair closed in June near 1.24, adding 3% a month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike rates next November, well ahead of the 2024 timeline. The AUDUSD pair fell by almost 3% after that to 0.7470 and finished the month at that level ten days later. The Bank of Japan left its policy measures unchanged, as was expected. The USDJPY pair went higher on renewed greenback strength and the Japanese yen pressure and climbed above 111.

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Comment on Gold on July 5, 2021

 - At the end of June, precious metal Gold has had a strong decrease from 1915 to 1750, covering up the previous May's increase, forming a twin candle pattern, so in this July, the possibility of pressure  selling will continue.

Switching to the weekly time frame (W1), we see that after 3 consecutive weeks of decline, the last 2 weeks the buying force has reappeared but not too strong.  Gold is currently facing a resistance around MA20 on the weekly chart, so there is likely to be selling pressure here.

 - Considering the shorter time frame than D1, we see this more clearly.  The price range 1787-1795 is still a fairly strong resistance area for precious metal Gold when from June 18, 2021 back here, it has not been broken and in my opinion at the beginning of this week's trading session, the possibility of Gold will correct.  slight correction here.  We can establish a short position in precious metal Gold at present price with a safe target around 1773 and expect around 1765.

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Check out the news happening in the last 24 hours

  1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - Last week, the number of first-time applicants in the United States continued to be at its lowest level since the week of March 14 last year.

 The US House of Representatives passed a $715 billion infrastructure bill.

 - Fed Hack: Support to reduce debt by the end of this year.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde: Restrictions on bank dividends could be lifted by the end of September.

 - OECD announces 130 countries/regions in favor of "two-pillar" reform.

 - UAE prevents OPEC from reaching an agreement to increase production.

 - US Congressional Budget Office: The estimated US fiscal deficit is $1.153 trillion in fiscal year 2022.

 2️⃣ Notable economic events and data today

 - The US will release the unemployment rate for June and nonfarm employment population data after seasonal adjustment for the US in June.  Investors pay close attention to this data.

 - European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech.

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