European Stocks Lower; More Russian Sanctions, Aggressive Fed Weigh

European stock markets traded lower Wednesday, weighed by the likely imposition of new Western sanctions on Russia as well as concerns of aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

By 3:40 AM ET (0740 GMT), the DAX in Germany traded 0.5% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.5% while U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.1%.

The United States and Europe are set to announce later Wednesday new sanctions to punish Moscow over alleged atrocities in Ukraine, something Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky described as "war crimes" in a speech to the United Nations security council.

The European Commission has already proposed new sanctions including banning Russian coal imports and halting trade worth nearly 20 billion euros ($22 billion), and the White House said late Tuesday that its new measures will target Russian banks and officials and ban investment in Russia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions already levied by the West as punishment have roiled markets, causing sharp rises in commodity prices, prompting fears of sharply slower growth this year. 

German factory orders fell 2.2% on the month in February in the runup to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, falling for the first time in four months and underscoring concerns over weaker growth in Europe’s largest economy. 

Also, dragging on the European markets are set to receive a negative handover from Asia and Wall Street after comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard raised expectations of aggressive interest rate rises by the U.S. central bank, added to by hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, normally seen as one of the more dovish members of the central bank policymakers.

This puts the focus firmly on the release later Wednesday of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting, with investors looking for clues over the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike at the U.S. central bank's next meeting in May.

In corporate news, Volkswagen (DE:VOWG_p) stock fell 2.7% after the German carmaker’s finance chief Arno Antlitz told the Financial Times that the company is likely to ditch many models by the end of the decade to concentrate on producing fewer cars overall but more profitable premium vehicles.

Vestas Wind Systems (CSE:VWS) stock fell 1.4% after the Danish wind turbine said that it would withdraw from Russia, where the firm has two factories.

Oil prices edged higher Wednesday, with traders having to balance supply concerns on the back of likely new sanctions on Russia with fears of weaker demand after a build in U.S. crude inventories and a prolonged COVID lockdown in Shanghai, the Chinese financial hub.

U.S. crude oil supply data from the industry body American Petroleum Institute, released late Tuesday, showed a build of just over 1 million barrels for last week, compared with the 3-million-barrel draw reported the previous week.

Investors now await official numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later in the session for confirmation.

By 3:40 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.9% higher at $102.86 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 1% to $107.67. 

Additionally, gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,919.50/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.0891.

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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD sticks to gains near $24.60-65 area, bearish bias remains

Silver gained some positive traction on Tuesday and snapped three days of the losing streak.

The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further upside.

Sustained move beyond the $25.00 mark is needed to support any near-term positive bias.

Silver built on the overnight bounce from the $24.30-$24.25 region and gained some positive traction on Tuesday, snapping three successive days of the losing streak to a four-day low. The white metal held on to its modest gains through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading around the $24.65-$24.70 zone.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD once again showed some resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $22.00-$26.95 move up. The subsequent move up supports prospects for some additional intraday gains, though neutral technical indicators on the daily chart warrants caution for aggressive bullish traders.

Hence, any further positive move might continue to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $25.00 psychological mark. A convincing breakthrough the said handle has the potential to lift the XAG/USD towards the $25.35-$25.40 intermediate hurdle, en-route the 23.6% Fibo., around the $25.75-$25.80 area.

On the flip side, weakness below the mid-$24.00 mark, or the 50% Fibo. level now seems to find some support near the overnight swing low, around the $24.30-$24.25 region. Some follow-through selling would make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards retesting sub-$24.00 levels, or the one-month low touched in March.

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 Oil rises to $105 as supply fears perist despite reserves release

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil rose to $105 a barrel on Monday in volatile trade as the release of strategic reserves by consuming nations failed to eliminate supply fears arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the lack of an Iranian nuclear deal.

The invasion in February heightened supply concerns that were already underpinning prices. Sanctions imposed on Russia and buyers' avoidance of Russian oil have already led to a drop in output and raised fears of larger losses. [IEA/M]

"Will the release of barrels from strategic reserves fill a shortfall caused by sanctions and buyer aversion to Russian oil? In a word, no," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Brent crude was up 92 cents, or 0.9%, at $105.31 a barrel by 1140 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $99.90. Both contracts were down more than $1 earlier in the session.

Crude dropped by about 13% last week after U.S. President Joe Biden announced a record U.S. oil reserves release and as International Energy Agency members committed to further tapping reserves. Crude had hit $139 last month, its highest since 2008.

"The massive release of 1 million barrels per day over a period of six months in the United States alone is likely to ensure that the oil market is no longer acutely undersupplied in the second and third quarters," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG)'s Carsten Fritsch wrote in a report.

Oil also gained support from a pause in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which would allow a lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil. Iran on Monday blamed the United States for the halt.

Downward pressure came from a truce in Yemen, which could ease threats to supply in the Middle East.

The United Nations has brokered a two-month truce between a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi group aligned with Iran for the first time in the seven-year conflict. Saudi oil facilities have come under Houthi attack during the fighting.

WTI falls back under $100 with Russo-Ukraine peace talk optimism, crude oil reserve releases in focus

Oil was trading with a bearish bias on Friday amid Russo-Ukraine peace talk optimism and crude oil reserve release focus. 

WTI dipped below $100 per barrel and hit fresh weekly lows sub-$98.00, with bears eyeing March lows in the $93.00s.

Oil prices have continued to trade with a bearish bias on Friday, with front-month WTI futures dipping to fresh weekly lows under $98.00 as traders digest the recent announcement of a major crude oil reserve release in the US (1M barrels per day for six months) and a further tightening of lockdown measures in major Chinese economic zone Shanghai. Recent positive commentary from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding progress in Russo-Ukraine peace talks is also weighing on oil as geopolitical risk premia is further unwound. Having found resistance at its 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) in the $108 area earlier in the week, WTI is now probing its 50DMA to the downside in $98.00s.

International Energy Agency member nations recently commenced a meeting and the speculation is that other major oil consumer nations might also announce crude oil reserve releases alongside the US. US President Joe Biden said this could amount to a further 30-50M barrels of immediate supply. If confirmed, further newsflow pertaining to crude oil reserve releases could inject further bearishness into crude oil markets, with a test of March lows in the $93.00s on the cards.

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 Gold heads for best quarter in six on Russia-Ukraine war

Gold was on course to post its biggest quarterly gain since September 2020 as the safe-haven metal's appeal was lifted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concerns over sky-high inflation.

However, by 0938 GMT, spot gold XAU= slipped 0.5% to $1,93.40 per ounce and U.S. gold futures GCv1 fell 0.6% to $1,927.80 as oil prices fell.

Oil plunged on news that the United States was considering releasing a large quantity of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to tackle high fuel prices.

"This (lower oil prices) has somewhat allayed the inflation concerns of market participants, meaning that gold as a store of value appears to be in less demand initially today," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note.

Bullion has gained about 5.2% this quarter as a Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February drove gold to a near record high earlier this month. (Full Story)

Along with the Ukraine crisis, worries over high inflation and whether efforts by major central banks are enough to rein it in are weighing on the economy and helping gold do well, said Brian Lan, managing director at dealer GoldSilver Central.

Meanwhile, European stocks were set for the biggest quarterly drop since the start of 2020. MKTS/GLOB

Non-yielding bullion is considered a safe store of value during uncertain times and a hedge against inflation.

Gold also remains en route to post a monthly rise, despite falling earlier in the month ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hike borrowing costs for the first time in three years to tame inflation. (Full Story)

Silver XAG= dipped 0.6% to $24.69 per ounce. Platinum XPT= slipped 0.7% to $983.27. Still, they were set to record quarterly gains.

Auto-catalyst metal palladium XPD= slipped 1.3% to $2,235.77, but is set for its sharpest quarterly jump since September 2020, having hit record highs earlier this month after the West heaped sanctions on top-producer Russia.

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Check out the news that happened in the last 24 hours

 1️⃣ Yesterday's main news

 - "Small Non-Farming" is upset again, suggesting that the US jobs recovery is slowing

 On Wednesday, the Fed's use of overnight reverse repurchases dropped significantly.

 - Crude oil inventories at the US EIA fell more than expected last week.

 - OPEC+ maintains a schedule of 400,000 barrels per day.

 - Iran: Once sanctions are lifted, oil production will be maximized.

 - The hawkish voices of senior ECB officials are growing louder.

 - Chile seeks 150 billion investment to achieve expansion target

 2️⃣ Today's Financial Facts and Data

 - the monthly rate of the Eurozone PPI for July will be published, the expected value is 1.1% and the previous value is 1.4%.  Recently, senior European Central Bank officials have frequently expressed concern about inflation risks in the euro area, if the data exceeds expectations it could accelerate the pace of key tightening.  policy of the European Central Bank.

 - today will release the number of initial jobless claims from the United States through August 28, the expected value is 345,000, and the previous value is 353,000.

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Comment on Gold on September 1, 2021

 In yesterday's trading session, precious metal Gold fluctuated in the range of 1801-1819, after matching buy limit order at 1802 Gold price bounced up to 1816, closing the day session with a rising green candle at 1802.  around 1813. With precious metal Gold appeared to gain strength after a day of slight decline, confirming my buy signal.  We will continue to maintain the buy signal with precious metal Gold like yesterday.

 In a shorter time frame, H4 price zone around 1807 will be a good buy point if any has not yet matched buy orders at 1802. Safe target around 1820 and expect 1830 in today's session.

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