Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD treads water around $1.840 amid sluggish USD, light trading

Gold Price erases recovery gains after bulls run into the 21 DMA barricade.

US dollar starts the week on the back foot amid a better risk environment.

America observes the Juneteenth holiday, leaving XAUUSD in limbo.

Gold Price is trading modestly flat around $1,840, reversing the rebound seen in the Asian session. The recovery in risk sentiment is boding ill for the safe-haven US dollar, in turn, capping the downside in the bright metal.

Thinner liquidity conditions on account of the Juneteenth holiday in the US also leave the dollar bulls at bay, helping the metal find a floor.

The upside in XAUUSD, however, remains capped, as investors remain wary amid the aggressive Fed’s tightening path. The Fed hiked the key policy rates by 75 bps last week while leaving doors open for a 75 bps increase in July, as the world’s central bank remains committed to fighting inflation.

Meanwhile, gold price also lacks the follow-through recovery momentum, as the US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, hit fresh monthly lows below 2.60%. The yellow metal is often considered a hedge against inflation.

Markets now remain focused on the testimony from ECB President Christine Lagarde for fresh hints on the monetary policy, which could have a significant impact on risk sentiment, which may affect gold dynamics. Next of note for the metal remains Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony due later this week.

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GBP/USD struggles to find demand near 1.2350, Powell eyed

GBP/USD stalls its recovery mode just below 1.2350.

US dollar holds the rebound despite the upbeat market mood.

Fed-BOJ policy divergence keeps GBP bulls on the defensive.

GBP/USD is fading its recovery momentum from the daily low of 1.2253, as bulls run into strong resistance just shy of the 1.2350 barrier.

The further upside in the pair remains capped, as investors reassess the BOE’s gradual approach to policy tightening, as it hiked the key rates by 25 bps on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Fed has left doors open for a 75 bps lift-off in July after delivering a 75 bps increase on Wednesday. The BOE remains way behind the curve when compared to the US central bank, which remains a drag on the pound.

“The 10-year UK T-bond yield is down 1.5% and the 10-year US T-bond yield is rising 1%, making it difficult for the pair to preserve its bullish momentum.

Earlier on, the recovery in the major was triggered by the return of risk flows in the European session, reflective of the 1% rally in the S&P 500 futures. Markets ignored the renewed upside in the US dollar, as nerves settle over fears over a potential recession, helping lift the overall risk sentiment.

Looking ahead, the BOE Quarterly Bulletin will be eyed for fresh insights on the economy and monetary policy. Later in the NA session, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will stand out amid other minority US economic releases.

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Russia's Novak: Oil market is balanced but there are lots of uncertainties

Following his meeting with Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that they have discussed forecasts on oil prices.

"It is important to continue joint work at OPEC+ to avoid collapse on the oil market," Novak added and noted that the oil market is currently balanced while acknowledging that there were lots of uncertainties.

Market reaction

Crude oil prices showed no immediate reaction to these comments and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was last seen trading at $113.50, where it was down 2% on a daily basis.

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GBP/USD: Rebound remains capped below 1.2100 ahead of the Fed

GBP/USD extends the bounce ahead of the critical Fed outcome.

US dollar retreats alongside yields and amid a rally in EUR/USD.

BOE is set to hike rates by 25 bps while the Fed could go for a 75 bps hike.

GBP/USD is consolidating the steep upsurge below 1.2100, as bulls take a breather after extending the recovery by over 150 pips.

The main catalyst behind cable’s impressive rebound could be linked to the broad-based US dollar correction, as investors take profits off the table on their USD longs ahead of the all-important Fed interest rate decision. The Fed pre-committed to a 50 bps rate hike in June and July, although markets have baked in a 75 bps lift-off after Friday’s hot US inflation.

Meanwhile, the pick up in the EUR/USD recovery following news that the ECB has called on an emergency meeting to discuss the recent sell-off in the bond market. The euro capitalized on the ECB news, as it fuelled hopes that the central bank was ready to act on the market turmoil. The renewed uptick in the main currency pair triggered a fresh downswing in the dollar across its main peers, boding well for the beleaguered pound.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision will take the center stage after Wednesday’s Fed outcome is out of the way. The BOE Is widely expected to hike the key rates by 0.25 bps to 1.25% this month.

Although a surprise 50 bps rate hike remains on the table amid higher inflation expectations and hopes that the BOE could take a strong action to control inflation.

Ahead of these central bank policy outcomes, the US Retail Sales data will be eyed for near-term trading impetus. The data, however, is unlikely to drive markets.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD struggles amid rapid rises in bond yields – Commerzbank

Gold came under considerable pressure on Monday and fell by almost 3% to around $1,820. As strategists at Commerzbank note, gold is facing headwind from the persistently firm US dollar and, above all, from the further rapid rises in bond yields. 

Fed could hike interest rates by 75 bps at its June meeting

“Yields on two-year US Treasuries have surged by around 30 basis points. Yields on ten-year US Treasuries climbed for a time above 3.4%, their highest level in more than eleven years. As a result, real interest rates have also picked up significantly and at 0.68% now find themselves at their highest level in over three years. This makes gold less attractive as a non-interest-bearing alternative investment.” 

“According to the Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates by 75 basis points tomorrow, which the market immediately priced in. The market now anticipates rate hikes totalling 200 basis points by September.”

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US dollar to weaken over short-term on a 50 bps hike from the Fed – Nordea

Economists at Nordea believe the Federal Reserve will hike by 50 bps, but uncertainty is very high. If they are right, the USD could weaken in favour of other G10 currencies.

USD could strengthen on a 75 bps hike from the Fed 

“We believe the Fed will hike by 50 bps this week but we admit that the uncertainty is very high. If we are right, we will likely see the USD weaken again in favour of other G10 currencies such as EUR, NOK, SEK, DKK, etc over the short-term. 

“If we are wrong, the USD could strengthen somewhat more against the rest of G10 currencies.”

“From a technical standpoint, the USD is close to being overbought against most G10 currencies currently.”

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GBP/USD hits multi-week lows near 1.2420 pre-US CPI as UK growth fears linger

GBP/USD hit multi-week lows on Friday in the low 1.2400s, with bears eyeing a push lower into the 1.2300s.

Near-term focus is on the upcoming US CPI release and whether it will impact Fed tightening expectations.

GBP/USD broke out to fresh multi-week lows in the 1.2420 area on Friday amid mixed FX market conditions and somewhat risk-averse pre-US inflation data trading conditions. The pair was last trading with losses of roughly 0.5% on the day, with bears eyeing a push lower into the 1.2300s in the week ahead should fears about the weakening UK economy linger.

According to a REC survey cited by Reuters on Friday, UK employers hired staff at the slowest pace since early 2021 in May, with the hiring pace having now declined for a sixth successive month. Sterling also has domestic politics to worry about, with the UK government reiterating its intention to pass legislation that would unilaterally amend the Northern Ireland Protocol (putting the UK’s free trade deal with the EU at risk) and with UK PM Boris Johnson’s authority having been weakened after a no-confidence vote on Monday that saw a larger than expected rebellion from his own MPs.

In the near-term, focus will be on US Consumer Price Inflation data scheduled for 1230GMT and analysts think that the data might ease inflation worries, which could (at the margin) relieve some pressure being felt by the Fed to tighten monetary policy so quickly in the quarters ahead. This could provide GBP/USD with some short-term support. But given Fed/BoE policy divergence and a comparatively weak UK growth story, traders may be inclined to sell any sterling rallies.

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