Valuable Top Forex News

 1️⃣ Fear of inflation, yields rebound, USD surpasses 93

- The dollar continued to rise higher at the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, hitting a one-year high against the Japanese yen, when US bond yields started to rise again on inflation fears.

2️⃣ Today's notable facts and data

U.S. Treasury yields skyrocketed on Tuesday, which once put pressure on US gold and silver stocks. Investors must continue to pay attention to changes in the yield curve. Two major events of the day could influence the trend in U.S. Treasury yields:

- At 20:15, the number of small non-farm ADP jobs in the US will be announced in March. The expected value is a 550,000 increase, much higher than the previous value of 117,000.

- At 4:20 tomorrow morning, US President Biden will deliver a speech on his economic vision. According to the Washington Post, US President Biden will announce plans worth $ 2.25 trillion, including $ 650 billion for the construction of infrastructures such as bridges and roads. White House officials are still making final adjustments to the plan and details may change.

In addition, at 22:45 PM, the 2021 FOMC Voting Committee and the Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivered a speech online on "monetary policy during the pandemic"; at 3:00 the following day, US Treasury Secretary Yellen will preside over the meeting.

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Today's Forex Top News

On the dollar side, it has been in high demand over the past few weeks, cautious market mood has pushed capital flows into safe assets, while economic strength and rapid vaccine rollout US rapid growth has increased the attractiveness of the greenback.

The country's claim to unemployment dropped to its lowest level in a year last week and President Joe Biden has said he will double his vaccination target, after reaching 100 million shots. 42 days ahead of time. US stocks futures fell slightly as capital flows to rebalance at the end of the quarter were boosted.

Compared to a basket of currencies, the dollar stabilizes at 92,810, just below November's high of 92.92 reached last week.

2️⃣ Significant events and economic data today

- At 22:00 today the US publishes its Consumer Confidence index. Measuring the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. This is a leading indicator as it can forecast consumer spending, playing a key role in overall economic performance. The higher the number, the higher the consumer optimism is.

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Comment on Gold on March 26, 2021

‼️  At the end of yesterday session, precious metal had a 2-way downward trend when it fell from 1738 to 1724, but immediately rebounded to 1745 and then decreased again to 1721. With the up and down momentum Recently, the precious metal Gold has not escaped from the accumulation zone 1745-1725. So in my personal opinion we will continue to trade Gold within this cumulative margin.

- Looking at H4 time frame, we can see selling pressure on this precious metal for many days, although the downside pressure of H4 candles appears, but the price still stands above 1725 and above MA20. D1 daily chart timeframe for the past several days. Because of this, the price zone of 1725 becomes a strong support zone, where in my opinion we can establish a buy position with the precious metal Gold. Let us keep trading within the cumulative range of Gold at 1738-1740 in the beginning of today's session.

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Comment on Gold on March 25, 2021

📕 Comment on Gold on March 25, 2021:

 

‼️ After touching the short-term support zone at 1725 gold precious metal has rebounded from 1723 to 1738 ($ 15) to close the daily candle around 1733. With the end of the daily candle around this price zone, in my personal opinion, would still maintain the bearish stance as reported yesterday.

 

- On the daily chart timeframe we can see that this precious metal Gold, although it had a rebounding rate yesterday, but compared to the decrease of the next candle, it is my opinion that the recovery span increases. usually let us have a better selling point today.

 

- Considering the smaller timeframe of H4, we can see that the price zone 1734-1736 is the zone where the precious metal price is facing resistance and it is likely that in this Asian session, gold will correct again to the zone 1725 and the period. My expectation is around 1715.

 

- And every strategy we all must have SL to preserve accounts. In my opinion, if the price of Gold rebounds strongly beyond 1744, we will have to liquidate the order, waiting for the next signal.

 

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Top Forex News by Money Life Research

1️⃣ Fed Chair - J. Powell's comments during the late-night hearing yesterday:

- Powell said that the post-pandemic economic recovery has "progressed faster than generally expected and appears to be consolidating." However, the sectors of the economy that were hardest hit by the pandemic are "still weak" and the unemployment rate is still "underestimated," so recovery still has a long way to go .

- Powell also expected inflation to rise this year, but it would "be neither too large nor persistent."

2️⃣ UK labor market was more positive than expected

Britain's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped over the 3-month period through January, official data showed Tuesday.

Specifically, the primary unemployment rate fell to 5.0% in the three months through January from 5.1% in the last quarter of 2020, contrary to the forecast in a Reuters poll of a small increase to 5.2%. . None of the economists polled expected a drop.

- Howard Archer, UK chief economist said: "The latest labor market data is a bit mixed but shows significant resilience."

3️⃣ The EU continues to face concerns about a stalling recovery

Europe is facing a tough second quarter as coronavirus infections rise and governments re-apply blockade measures. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) will do its part to keep borrowing costs extremely low, said Philip Lane, ECB chief economist.

- Fearing that rising borrowing costs will hinder a recovery, ECB earlier this month promised to increase bond purchases to keep yields low. The figures released on Monday show that purchases of mostly government bonds have increased by a half in the week since that decision.

Immunization campaigns have slowed surprisingly across 19 eurozone countries and governments are now extending blockade measures that threaten economic recovery.

4️⃣ Notable economic data and events today

- Powell and Yellen will attend the Senate Banking Committee hearing at 22:00 on Wednesday, and their content matches Tuesday.

In addition, Fed officials Barkin, Williams and Daley will all deliver a speech. Kaplan's latest speech is an anomaly, and you might notice the attitudes of other officials about the rate hike.

- European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech on climate change at 23:40 PM. The Federal Reserve has set up a new climate committee to oversee some of the European Central Bank's actions.

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Comment on Gold on March 23 by Money Life Research

 ‼️  At the end of yesterday's session, Gold price had a day of decline when the price fell from 1745 to 1727 ($ 18) closed the daily candle by a bearish candle at 1738. This is the 4th consecutive day in a row. while the precious metal Gold is still in the sideways from 1745-1725. With Gold still in this range, I still hold my personal opinion as in the last few days, we will sell down in this price range and wait for the breakout.

- As I mentioned as yesterday morning's comment. Personally, I am still waiting for a downward sweep of gold precious metal below the price zone that it is going sideways to be able to go up further so today we will continue to sell down precious metals. This is in the 1741-1746 region. Safe target will remain on the 1727-1732 price zone and expect 171x today.

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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE, ANALYSIS AND CHART

A quiet open to the week for Bitcoin but volatility may soon return as the cryptocurrency becomes trapped between two trendlines. The recent uptrend continues to serve Bitcoin traders well, providing well-flagged areas of support. This trend is now coming under pressure from a short-term bearish resistance trendline off the recent high print, meaning a break of one trend will happen in the near future. This bullish pennant set-up suggests, as the name implies, a topside breakout that would put the recent all-time high under pressure. A clean break and open either above or below trend is needed to confirm the next move.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is struggling to push higher and may find difficulty breaching the $2,000 level again in the near-term. While a cluster of recent lows, and the 20- and 5-day smas, between $1,700 and $1,750 provide reasonable support, the short-term downtrend off the March 13 high at $1,944 may put this support zone under pressure and expose the next level of support around $1,670. ETH/USD remains volatile with a current 14-day ATR reading of around $117, suggesting that any break lower has the room to test the $1,670 level quickly.

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Comment on Gold on March 19, 2021

 At the end of the session yesterday, the world gold price had a strong decline from 1755 to 1719 ($ 36), but at the end of the session, the price of gold rebounded and closed the daily candle at 1732 with a tree. candle draw legs. In my opinion, after the gain of Wednesday night, yesterday the price dropped just like that, back to the sideways 1723-1740. So we can trade the precious metal Gold in these 2 margins.

- Moving to the H4 time frame, in my opinion, Gold may still be under downward pressure at the beginning of today's session to come back to test the 1716-1720 price range again. Only consider the signal of a reversal of Gold here. If the precious metal Gold does not pass this price range, it is likely that Gold will have an uptrend again.

- One more thing in my opinion, we should limit trading in the middle of the current price at the beginning of the Asian session to wait for the deep waves of this precious metal to establish an entry position that will be safer for the asset. our account.

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EUR/USD Price Outlook Remains Biased to the Downside as Euro Weakness Continues

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell may have given a slightly dovish outlook at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but the closely watched US Treasury market is seemingly ignoring his ‘looser for longer’ rhetoric. The yield on the benchmark UST 10-year touched 1.74% early today, up around 9 bps, while the UST 2/10-year spread (inverted) steepened to 160 basis points, its widest level since 2015. And more importantly for EUR/USD, the spread between the 10-year German Bund – the de-facto EU benchmark – and the UST 10-year is now a full 2 big figures or 200 basis points. If this spread remains, or widens further, EUR/USD will come under renewed downside pressure.

The ongoing spread of the coronavirus in Europe continues to weigh on the single currency and this may increase if a mooted third lockdown in parts of Europe becomes reality. German covid-19 cases are growing ‘exponentially’ according to the countries Robert Koch Institute, France recorded just over 38k new cases on Wednesday, while Poland hit a 2021 high in new infections prompting the government to impose a new three-week partial lockdown. The EU will remain at risk of new partial or full lockdowns until the heavily criticized vaccination program turns a corner and begins vaccinating people in their millions a day.

Popular Moving Averages and How to Use Them

The daily chart shows the pair now trapped between the 20-day SMA (resistance) and the 200-day sma (support). This bearish outlook will be confirmed if the pair make another break and open below the 200-day sma, leaving the recent multi-month low at 1.1832 as the next downside target. The 20-day sma at 1.1990 guards the upside.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART (JULY 2020 – MARCH 18, 2021)

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IG Retail trader data show 44.07% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.27 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.

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📕 Comment on Gold on March 17

‼ In yesterday's trading session, the world gold price had a bounce to test the "old peak of 1740" but once again did not pass and then declined slightly again after that. At the end of yesterday session, precious metal Gold closed with a slight decreasing candle around 1728. With the last 2 days, the amplitude slowed down and the upside force was restrained at around 1740. In my personal opinion we can resell when the price approaches this price zone.

- Looking at the shorter timeframe H4 we see selling pressure around the resistance zone 1740 so at this price zone we would prefer to sell short to yesterday's range of 1728 and expectation is 1721. At this price zone, let's liquidity and wait for signal of breakout of gold precious metal.

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Gold Prices Hold Up, Crude Oil Higher as Yellen Defies Inflation Fears

 Gold and crude oil prices traded modestly higher during Monday’s APAC morning session following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comment on inflation over the weekend. Gold has subsequently erased gains as the US 10-year Treasury yields rose anew, however. “Is there a risk of inflation? I think there’s a small risk and I think it’s manageable we’ll certainly monitor for it… but we have tools to address it,” Yellen said. Her comment eased market fears about a ‘taper tantrum’ after rising inflation expectations and longer-dated yields caused heightened market volatility recently.

Yellen’s view on inflation echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments arguing that the current set of monetary stimulus measures is “appropriate”, hinting that the Fed may hold its policy rate and bond-purchasing program largely unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Gold traders will closely watch this week’s announcement alongside the BoE and BOJ meetings for clues about global central banks’ take on inflation and economic recovery. If policymakers signal appetite for pushing asset purchases further down the yield curve to contain rising long-term borrowing costs, that may serve as a much-needed positive catalyst for precious metals.

A rapid surge in US real yields, represented by 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security, has exacerbated the sell-off in gold since early February (chart below). Rising real yields are largely attributed to the prompt rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and fiscal stimulus progress, which painted a brighter outlook for an economic recovery. Fiscal stimulus-backed reflation hopes may lead yields to trend higher alongside inflation expectations, which appears to be bad news for bullion. Gold prices have fallen 6.3% since February 10th, while crude oil prices have climbed 13.3% during the same period. The question is how far will rates go before stabilizing?

Crude oil prices climbed during Monday’s APAC session to a fresh 13-month high, backed by optimism about demand recovery and an OPEC+ extension of output curbs. President Joe Biden signed the US$ 1.9 trillion Covid relief bill into law on Thursday, paving the way for a faster recovery of energy demand. The US had over 100 million vaccines administered as of March 13th, with daily new infections falling to 49,728. Encouraging progress on pandemic control suggests that easing lockdown measures and travel restrictions are on the horizon.

The OPEC+ coalition pledged to keep output curbs unchanged at a meeting in early March, while many traders anticipated a production hike. Saudi Arabia decided to extend its unilateral 1 million barrel per day production cut into April. Restraint by the oil cartel and its allies has further strengthened the oil price outlook alongside demand optimism.

The EIA crude oil inventory report set to be released on March 17th will be closely watched by oil traders after two weeks of large stockpile build due to extreme weather conditions that hurt refinery activity. Refiners operated at 69% of their capacity during the week ending March 5th, compared to an average of 80% capacity seen in January.

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Friday Dax Analysis by Money Life Research

  ℹ️ #DAX #ANALYSIS

At the moment the DAX seems to be taking a break on the rise, something quite normal after everything that has risen, but at the moment it does not seem that there will be strong falls either and it will be a break to continue climbing later.  Looking at data today Michigan consumer sentiment in the USA.

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General analysis of DXY Index

 📝 General analysis of DXY index (measuring USD strength) on 11/03/2021 only in PAID SERVICES:

 After 2 weeks of strong break-through of DXY as analyzed by definition, in my opinion, this week, DXY will likely adjust a little to be able to move to the next thresholds.  As I mentioned last time that the condition for DXY to move forward is that it will have to break through the MA20 on the weekly timeframe (W1) so after breaking this MA it has turned up sharply and is now in  Retest momentum is needed to bounce further.

Moving to the D1 daily chart, we can see that the index's bearish force is strong and in my opinion, DXY will continue to correct this week, the next level DXY is back.  is around 91 points of the index.  At this price zone, in my opinion, DXY is likely to create a bottom-up to conquer the next higher levels after nearly 1 year of continuous decline.

 - Because of the expectation that DXY will reduce, we will prioritize buying XXX / USD and selling USD / XXX including gold (XAUUSD).  But everyone remembers this is the correction of the DXY (USD), not the long-term trend, so after the short-term rally of XXX / USD including gold (XAUUSD), let's find a selling point.  !

 (Currently, the DXY index price is analyzed at 91.78 index points, this indicator is used to analyze USD-related currency pairs NOT TRADE)!

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Monthly Overview on Oil by Money Life Research

 Monthly change: XBRUSD +17.15%

Oil prices rose sharply in February. Saudi Arabia's deep output cuts, an improving demand outlook, and cold front, which shut wells and refineries in Texas, contributed to the price increase.

The growing popularity of commodities as a hedge against resurgent inflation have pushed oil higher this year. There have been a lot of bullish calls in recent weeks predicting that the rally will continue. The maintenance in the North Sea fields is set to reduce the oil supply.

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is crucial. The market could remain positive in the face of a modest increase in OPEC+ production. If there is a large increase, then it could dampen the outlook in the short term.

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Check out the news of the last day

 + Check out the news of the past 24 hours:

 1️⃣ Many factors drive the strength of the dollar

 - USD continued to hold its strength, rising to the highest level in 3 and a half months, benefiting from the increase in US bond yields and the decrease in risk demand in the stock market.

 - “The increase in US bond yields increased volatility in the stock market, and supported USD.  As for the Fed, it still maintains a soft attitude while pushing back expectations of actions against higher yields ”.  UBS strategists said in a note.

 - Analyst Bofa - Athanasios Vamvakidis, said that strong fiscal stimulus, economic reopening process is accelerating and greater consumer spending are factors driving USD.

 - The US Senate approved a $ 1.9 trillion bailout plan, after a day when the NFP report showed strong labor market growth, which pushed the USD to its highest level since  November 2020. The dollar index stands at 92,186 against a basket of six major currencies, up 0.3%.

 2️⃣ Investment sentiment in the common currency area increased sharply

 - The euro zone investment sentiment index jumped to a more than a year high in March, driven by an improved look at the current situation, a survey found earlier in the week.  .

 - Global immunization campaigns are being achieved, accelerating, raising expectations about the ability of communities to be protected against pandemics.  This allows economies to reopen faster and investors are betting on these.

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Comment on Gold on March 8

 📕 Comment on Gold on March 8, 2021:

 ‼ ️ At the end of last trading week, world gold price had a week of decreasing from 1759 to 1686 (73 $).  This is also the 3rd consecutive week World Gold has a decline.  With quite strong downside pressure on weekly and monthly timeframes, we have clearly seen the downward pressure of the gold precious metal in the coming time, but in the short term in my opinion.  Last week, gold precious metal is still ending at strong support zone around 1680-1685.  And in my opinion, it is likely that in the first sessions of the week, this precious metal will have an upturn momentum after a week of declines.

 - Moving to daily chart timeframe we can see that last Friday the world gold price closed with a bullish candle after a series of declines in Gold.  As stated at the end of the week, in order for this precious metal to increase further, today, World Gold will have to end the day with a bullish candle above 1713-1715 to be able to increase in the days.  next.

 - Returning to the Asian session today, we will prioritize buying the gold precious metal around the 1697-1700 zone and the safe profit-taking target will be around 1715.

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Any light at the end of the tunnel for US employment?

Any light at the end of the tunnel for US employment?

9 million fewer Americans are currently employed compared to February of last year.

Will the latest Non-Farmers Payroll (NFP) release provide the US’s labor market and economy with a more optimistic outlook?

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Check out the news of the past 24 hours

 🌈🌈Good morning!  Have a nice day!

 + Check out the news of the past 24 hours:

 1️⃣ Fed Chairman Powell reiterated his commitment to maintain easing policies, stressing that job creation is a top priority.

 Fed Chairman Powell said on Thursday that with the progress of vaccinations and the government's financial support, “we have every reason to believe that further progress will be made in achieving the entry.  Fed spending on full employment and inflation is consistently at 2%.  However, even if this situation is reached, it will take a long time.  I want to be clear about this.  Even if the situation improves, I hope we will be patient.  "

 - It can take a long time to restore production and fill the lost jobs and it may be difficult to reach maximum jobs this year.

 - The Fed has no plans to change the QE, continue to patiently wait for inflation to rise according to the expected target.

 - The Fed is not ready to change the current rate hike plan, it may take more time to consider raising interest rates.

 - The US bond yields continue to increase strongly and continue to be the key drive to support the expectation that the USD will rebound when the economy is more prosperous.

 - However, the US stock market reversed and declined due to concerns that FED would consider intervening in policy when bond yields are increasing.

 2️⃣ Notable economic facts and data today

 - At tonight, the February season-adjusted US non-farm employment data will be released, expected to increase by 182,000, 49,000 higher than previous values.  Be wary of below-expected non-farm risks.  The market expects that the US unemployment rate in February will hit a record 6.3%, equal to the previous value.

 On Saturday morning, the 2021 FOMC voting committee, Bostic will deliver a speech on "macroeconomic policy" at an online event.  You may have noticed his statement about the soaring US bond yields.

 - On Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko will make a speech after Kuroda Haruhiko said that he has no intention of raising Japan's 10-year government bond yield target from the 0.

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Technical Overview on Gold

 USD: The FOMC's Brainard should give risk assets some breathing space

FX markets have stabilized overnight, assisted in part by comments from Lael Brainard of the Federal Open Market Committee, who reported that she has been paying close attention to recent moves in US Treasury yields. Since UST uncertainty is currently the biggest risk to risk assets and cyclical FX, these remarks should give higher beta FX some breathing space. In the United States, the priority is on February ISM Facilities. We expect a minor correction from the January reading, which should help risk assets stay stable.

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Monthly Overview on Indices

 Monthly change: SPX500 +5%

After reaching the new historical level of 3,960, the SPX500 index has started to decline. Stocks have fallen sharply, and the decline should not come as a surprise to anyone. Valuations in many equities have been at historically high levels.

The index's rally has been driven by the idea that low-interest rates could expand PE multiples. However, yield rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. These higher rates are making the stock market more expensive when compared to bond yields. If stocks need to reprice, it could result in a rather steep equity market sell-off, perhaps more than 20%.

It seems as if technology stocks prices have burned out over the past 12 months and maybe hit the hardest in a repricing environment triggered by rising yield rates. A market drawdown would undoubtedly be welcome after the euphoric run it has had over the last year. The rising-rate environment and overvalued stock market seem to have all come together, creating a perfect situation for this.

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GBPUSD Overview

GBPUSD overview, this pair will continue down in the first half of March.  If you want to buy in, you should wait for the price to go down to the lower green demand zone, then you should buy in in the long term, so the current should not buy and the point to start buying will be the starting price.  head from 1.3770 or less.

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Gold technical analysis overview for March 2021 with team Money Life Research

 Gold technical analysis overview for March 2021 with team MoneyLife 💷 Research 📈

On the monthly chart, after ending February with a strong bearish candle, it shows that the selling pressure is still dominating with the information coming from the USD strongly increasing in the context of US bond yields.  go to high place.  The US economic outlook is brightly assessed.  In general, fundamental and technical analysis is in favor of the next decline in gold, here I have drawn a long-term downside target for gold to be 1500-1600.  On the H4 chart it can be seen that the price at the beginning of the week is recovering and I have drawn fibo to determine where the recovery span can be reached, here in my opinion, the price can recover to the 38.2-50 fibo zone.  is resistance in the past.  To be safe, we can wait for the price to rise to this zone and close the candle to give a bearish signal, then entering the order will be low risk.  The specific signal I will update with proper levels.

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