Monthly change: SPX500 +5%
After reaching the new historical level of 3,960, the SPX500 index has started to decline. Stocks have fallen sharply, and the decline should not come as a surprise to anyone. Valuations in many equities have been at historically high levels.
The index's rally has been driven by the idea that low-interest rates could expand PE multiples. However, yield rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. These higher rates are making the stock market more expensive when compared to bond yields. If stocks need to reprice, it could result in a rather steep equity market sell-off, perhaps more than 20%.
It seems as if technology stocks prices have burned out over the past 12 months and maybe hit the hardest in a repricing environment triggered by rising yield rates. A market drawdown would undoubtedly be welcome after the euphoric run it has had over the last year. The rising-rate environment and overvalued stock market seem to have all come together, creating a perfect situation for this.
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